Stocks rose higher Monday as market participants held onto optimism that the United States and Iran will reach a peace deal over the next couple of days.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump announced the U.S. Navy will block all maritime traffic in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, effective Monday, after talks in Islamabad between Washington and Tehran dissolved without a deal. The prolonged ceasefire uncertainty reintroduced investor concern over global fuel supply, sending both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil futures above $99 per barrel on Monday.
"Iran's Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated - 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, 'fast attack ships,' because we did not consider them much of a threat," Trump posted on his social network Truth Social. "Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea."
Long-term positive outlooks, however, are supported by historical data, according to UBS, with the firm noting that when the S&P 500 drops as much as 10% within three to four weeks in response to geopolitical conflicts, it typically rising above pre-conflict levels within six months.
"This is not an argument against a constructive medium-term investment outlook, and relatively light investor positioning is poised to be a near-term market tailwind," a Monday note from UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Office read. "But geopolitics are hard to predict and often full of unexpected plat twists, and the U.S.-Iran conflict is unlikely to be any different."
On the earnings front, Goldman Sachs
"The geopolitical landscape remains complex - so disciplined risk management must remain core to how we operate," CEO David Solomon said in the earnings release, adding later during Goldman's earnings call that " if the resolution of the [U.S.-Iran] conflict drags, that probably will be a headwind in some of these ares, particularly inflation trends as we get further into the second and the third quarter."
For Tuesday, market participants will turn their attention towards earnings from JPMorgan Chase
