For the last 12 months, the U.S. economy has experienced a deceleration although growth has remained firmly positive. However, the deceleration is largely due to a slowdown in manufacturing which has become outright recessionary in some sub-industries and regions. Of course, this slowdown has been exacerbated by the uncertainties of the trade war.It's ironic yet inevitable that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hurting manufacturing the most, since that's precisely...
Many are pointing to the rise of subprime financing for autos and the current increase in delinquencies as a looming threat to financial markets and the broader economy. There have even been comparisons to 2008. Others aren't worried, seeing the market as being small and contained with little threat of spillover effects even if every subprime loan went belly-up.The chart below shows the trailing 60-day delinquency index for auto loans. It's reached 6% which is higher than the...

The stock market has steadily rallied since early October. Overbought conditions have been worked off by sideways trading rather than dips. Over this period, the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is 8% higher and has moved decisively to all-time highs.

One strange circumstance of this rally is that manufacturing data and the broader economy continue to slow and lose momentum. Based on recent data, Q4 GDP is expected to come in at 1% which would be close to a cycle-low. Manufacturing continues to be contractionary in the US and across the globe with almost nine months of sub 50 ISM readings.

Stocks dropped immediately dropped following the report, however, the weakness was quickly bought, and the S&P 500 finished almost 1% higher off the day's lows. This dynamic of sell-offs on bad news immediately being bought is a sign that markets have priced in the bad manufacturing news and art anticipating future improvements. If those improvements don't materialize, stocks will certainly give back these gains.

Stocks are behaving as if this is the nadir of the manufacturing slowdown, and growth is going to pick up in future quarters. In this context, the price action along with the newsflow makes sense. This is confirmed by the price action of leading cyclical stocks like Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) which missed earnings and lowered guidance but saw its stock rally. This indicates capi...

Three Reasons to be Bullish on the Stock... Since May, the S&P 500 (SPY) has basically been range-bound, trading between 2,750 and 3,000. In recent months, this range has tightened wit...
Three Reasons to be Bullish on the Stock... Since May, the S&P 500 (SPY) has basically been range-bound, trading between 2,750 and 3,000. In recent months, this range has tightened wit...
Three Reasons to be Bullish on the Stock... Since May, the S&P 500 (SPY) has basically been range-bound, trading between 2,750 and 3,000. In recent months, this range has tightened wit...
Three Reasons to be Bullish on the Stock... Since May, the S&P 500 (SPY) has basically been range-bound, trading between 2,750 and 3,000. In recent months, this range has tightened wit...
Why Gold Could Decline Over the Coming M... Gold (NYSE: GLD) has risen more than 30% over the past year. Some of the major catalysts behind these gains was increased economic uncertain...
Why Gold Could Decline Over the Coming M... Gold (NYSE: GLD) has risen more than 30% over the past year. Some of the major catalysts behind these gains was increased economic uncertain...
Why Gold Could Decline Over the Coming M... Gold (NYSE: GLD) has risen more than 30% over the past year. Some of the major catalysts behind these gains was increased economic uncertain...
Why Gold Could Decline Over the Coming M... Gold (NYSE: GLD) has risen more than 30% over the past year. Some of the major catalysts behind these gains was increased economic uncertain...
Salesforce.com Under Distribution In 2011, Marc Andreesen wrote a famous opinion piece titled, "Software is Eating the World". This piece has proved to be...
Salesforce.com Under Distribution In 2011, Marc Andreesen wrote a famous opinion piece titled, "Software is Eating the World". This piece has proved to be...
Salesforce.com Under Distribution In 2011, Marc Andreesen wrote a famous opinion piece titled, "Software is Eating the World". This piece has proved to be...
Salesforce.com Under Distribution In 2011, Marc Andreesen wrote a famous opinion piece titled, "Software is Eating the World". This piece has proved to be...
Dollar breaks to highs. What to do with... You may have noticed that the US Dollar broke to new highs last week. No? OK, let's talk about it. After almost exactly one year of sideways...
Dollar breaks to highs. What to do with... You may have noticed that the US Dollar broke to new highs last week. No? OK, let's talk about it. After almost exactly one year of sideways...
Dollar breaks to highs. What to do with... You may have noticed that the US Dollar broke to new highs last week. No? OK, let's talk about it. After almost exactly one year of sideways...
Dollar breaks to highs. What to do with... You may have noticed that the US Dollar broke to new highs last week. No? OK, let's talk about it. After almost exactly one year of sideways...
Use Both Technical and Fundamental Analy... There has always been a strong debate in the trading world between the technical traders and the fundamentalists. While the technical trader...
Use Both Technical and Fundamental Analy... There has always been a strong debate in the trading world between the technical traders and the fundamentalists. While the technical trader...
Use Both Technical and Fundamental Analy... There has always been a strong debate in the trading world between the technical traders and the fundamentalists. While the technical trader...
Use Both Technical and Fundamental Analy... There has always been a strong debate in the trading world between the technical traders and the fundamentalists. While the technical trader...
Opportunity in UnitedHealth Group Inc.? UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) is due to report earnings this Tuesday morning and if you've looked at the stock lately you might say a...
Opportunity in UnitedHealth Group Inc.? UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) is due to report earnings this Tuesday morning and if you've looked at the stock lately you might say a...
Opportunity in UnitedHealth Group Inc.? UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) is due to report earnings this Tuesday morning and if you've looked at the stock lately you might say a...
Opportunity in UnitedHealth Group Inc.? UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) is due to report earnings this Tuesday morning and if you've looked at the stock lately you might say a...

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