ExxonMobil Corporation
The company's total revenues of $82.3 billion beat the consensus forecast of $81.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.71 per share, topping the analyst expectations of $1.67.
For the first quarter, ExxonMobil expects upstream volumes to be 100,000-200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day lower, mainly due to timing effects, downtime, and the absence of favorable entitlements.
The company anticipates upstream production of around 4.9 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2026.
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram raised the price forecast from $133 to $140, while keeping an Overweight rating.
Analyst View
The analyst writes that ExxonMobil's shares rose following the earnings release and were in line with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF
The quarterly results beat street and JPM estimates, driven by higher EPS, CFO, and a lower tax rate, adds the analyst.
Jayaram writes that the company completed 10 key projects in 2025, which are expected to add $3 billion in earnings this year.
Permian guidance for 2026 remains flat vs. the fourth quarter FY25 exit rate, with growth potential beyond 2030, adds the analyst.
Jayaram writes that ExxonMobil maintains a cautious stance on Venezuela while exploring opportunities in Iraq and Libya under improved commercial conditions.
Estimates Revision
The analyst revised 2026/2027 EPS estimates to $6.73/$7.71 (previously $6.39/$7.47), and cash flow per share (CFPS) estimates to $14.03/$15.53 (previously $13.71/$15.44).
The estimates are based on oil and gas prices of $61.08/$60.34 per barrel for 2026 and $4.26/$3.72 per Mcf for 2027 (up from $57.81/$57.74 per barrel and $3.38/$3.79 per Mcf, respectively).
Price Action: XOM shares are down 1.50% at $139.28 at the last check on Monday.
