Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM  ) could deliver a better-than-expected December quarter thanks to Apple Inc. (AAPL  ) strength, yet a softer smartphone market and higher operating costs may quickly dim the outlook. JPMorgan Securities has reduced its price forecast for Qualcomm to $195 from $210 while keeping an Overweight rating on the stock, according to a research note released Monday.

The firm's analysts, led by Samik Chatterjee, cited concerns about smartphone industry dynamics impacting the company's licensing revenue and increased operating expenses from recent acquisitions.

Earnings Estimates Lowered

JPMorgan lowered its fiscal year 2026 earnings estimate to $11.50 from $11.80 previously, and its fiscal 2027 forecast to $12.15 from $12.80. The analysts expect first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $12.6 billion versus consensus of $12.2 billion, but anticipate a softer second quarter with revenue of $10.8 billion compared to consensus expectations of $11.2 billion.

JPMorgan expects the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 revenue and earnings to deliver upsides relative to consensus, the analysts said, citing seasonal strength in Apple Inc. volumes and higher-than-modeled share with the iPhone maker.

Acquisition Costs and R&D Spending Pressure Margins

The firm highlighted that earnings per share outlook faces headwinds from expenses related to recent acquisitions of Alphawave, Ventana, and Augentix, along with higher research and development spending in the datacenter business. For the second-quarter fiscal 2026, JPMorgan forecasts EPS of $2.66 versus the consensus of $2.90.

The analysts noted that Android original equipment manufacturers are facing memory cost increases, which could impact Qualcomm's handset revenues and licensing business starting in the March quarter. JPMorgan expects Qualcomm Technology Licensing revenues of $1.29 billion in the fiscal second quarter 2026, versus the consensus of $1.35 billion.

Valuation Remains Attractive Despite Forecast Cut

Despite the reduced price forecast, the new $195 forecast implies 29% upside from current levels, supported by an "inexpensive" 13 times next twelve months valuation multiple and opportunities in artificial intelligence inferencing for datacenters.

Qualcomm is rated Overweight on expectations of a long-term share re-rating driven by its shift away from smartphones toward PCs, IoT and automotive, which are set to become much more meaningful revenue contributors by decade-end.

While Apple's modem insourcing is a near-term headwind, analysts believe Qualcomm's edge-AI and edge-computing leadership positions it well to offset this and drive higher valuation over time.

QCOM Price Action: Qualcomm shares were up 1.01% at $153.12 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.