Amazon.com Inc.
Analysts expect $1.97 per share on $202.2 billion in revenue, up 12%.
More than $317,000 has traded on Kalshi contracts tracking what CEO Andy Jassy and other Amazon representatives will say.
What Kalshi Predicts Amazon Will Say
"Trainium" leads at 98%. Jassy has said Amazon's AI chip could save tens of billions annually in capital spending at scale and improve AWS margins by several percentage points.
"Bedrock" also sits at 98%. The AI platform runs most inference on Trainium, while second-quarter customer spending exceeded all previous quarters combined.
"Graviton" follows at 92%. Amazon says its general-purpose server chip delivers up to 40% better price-performance than comparable processors.
"NVIDIA" trades at 87%. Despite developing its own chips, Amazon plans to deploy 2 million additional GPUs from Nvidia Corp.
"OpenAI" sits at 86%. In February, the ChatGPT developer expanded its AWS agreement by $100 billion, including 2 gigawatts of Trainium capacity.
"Anthropic / Claude" trades at 93%. Amazon recorded $53.4 billion in pretax investment gains last quarter, primarily from its Anthropic stake.
What Kalshi Predicts on Retail and Ads
"Alexa+" sits at 88% after Amazon unveiled five Alexa-powered devices Wednesday. Jassy said U.S. customers using Alexa for Shopping spend over 40% more per order than nonusers.
"Sponsored Products" trades at 74%. Amazon's ad revenue grew 26% last quarter, but AI shopping agents could bypass paid listings. Amazon blocked Meta's Muse in September, citing security concerns.
"Live Sports" sits at 88%. Jassy said in July that advertising inventory across Amazon's NFL, NBA, WNBA and NASCAR broadcasts had sold out.
"Prime Day" trades at 89%. Amazon moved the event from July to June, reducing expected third-quarter revenue growth by nearly four percentage points.
What Kalshi Predicts Amazon Will Skip
"Layoff / Job Cuts" trades at just 13%, despite Amazon cutting up to 250 devices jobs Wednesday, following about 1,000 retail cuts earlier this month.
"China" sits at 27%, against 92% for "Tariff" and 72% for "Supply Chain." Traders expect executives to discuss import costs without necessarily naming China.
"Iran / Middle East" is near a coin flip at 46%. AWS said it could not restore some customer data after wartime damage to facilities in Bahrain and the UAE.
"Pinterest" trades at 22% and "Snowflake" at 11%, despite Pinterest Inc.
Reading the Board
The odds suggest Jassy will focus on Amazon's AI ambitions, but investors want evidence that surging AWS demand can translate into profits.
Wall Street expects AWS revenue of $45.4 billion, up roughly 38%. Bank of America's Justin Post expects AWS growth of 40% and a 39% operating margin, against Visible Alpha's 37.3% margin consensus.
Options imply a 6.64% post-earnings move, putting roughly $181 billion in market value at stake, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Even strong AWS growth may disappoint if margins weaken or Jassy raises spending plans.
