SpaceX
But Tesla shareholders would receive just 48% of the merged business, down from 54% in the bank's July calculations, even though the hypothetical offer price has not changed.
SpaceX's Rising Value Changes the Deal
RBC analyst Tom Narayan modeled a combined company worth $3.31 trillion in July, with Tesla investors holding 54%.
But SpaceX's rising valuation has flipped the equation. RBC's latest research note puts the combined company at $3.74 trillion, with SpaceX shareholders owning 52%.
That gives SpaceX investors roughly $422 billion more in implied value, while Tesla holders' stake remains worth about $1.8 trillion.
RBC's $480 valuation represents a roughly 30% premium for Tesla investors. Under the hypothetical all-stock deal, shareholders would receive SpaceX shares rather than cash, with the final value depending on the companies' share prices and the terms of any agreement.
RBC sees potential benefits from combining Tesla's robotics and manufacturing operations with SpaceX's AI infrastructure, including their Terafab semiconductor ambitions. The bank says it has no knowledge of an actual transaction.
Asked in September why Tesla and SpaceX remained separate, Elon Musk called it a "great question" and told listeners to "imagine what action" he might take given the companies' growing collaboration.
Would Tesla Shareholders Really Benefit?
Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund, warned Tesla investors last week that any takeover premium paid in SpaceX shares could be "whittled away by arbs."
Black argued that investors could value the combined company using Tesla's lower valuation multiple, while arbitrage traders seeking to profit from the merger could eat into the premium before the deal closes.
Prediction Traders See a Longer Road
Barclays analyst Dan Levy suggested last week that an announcement could arrive before Tesla's Dec. 3 shareholder meeting.
Traders on Polymarket put the probability of an official announcement by Dec. 31 at 18%, rising to 64% by the end of 2027. The market has attracted over $1.4 million in trading volume.
Tesla shares rose over 3% to $367, while SpaceX gained over 2% to $150.
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday, Oct. 20, followed by Tesla on Wednesday, Oct. 21.
