Given the climate of fear and torrent of negative headlines, it's a useful exercise to study some positive developments. To be clear, these are not enough to offset all the weaknesses and uncertainties. Ultimately, this situation is only going to improve when the underlying disease is dealt with through either vaccination or a means to test, trace, and isolate people who have the disease.
Therefore, these "green shoots" are quite tenuous and could be trampled at any time.
Infrastructure
Both President Donald Trump and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi have expressed interest in a massive infrastructure bill for Phase 4 of the stimulus. The one objection to this is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who seems adamantly opposed to this at the current time given concerns about debt and deficits. However, this is most likely a simple negotiation posture. After all, he was also opposed to Phase 3 at one time, and it passed with nearly unanimous consent in the Senate.
The infrastructure stocks are already showing some relative strength to the broader market. For example, Vulcan Materials
Curve Flattening
Another "green shoot" is that social distancing is working with a 2 to 3 week lag like the experts have been predicting. Hard-hit places like Italy, Washington, and New York City are seeing the growth rate of new cases flattening albeit at a high level, but it does indicate that there is some light at the end of the tunnel. It also shows that our collective action is having real consequences despite the toll it's taking on numerous levels.
However, this also means that places like Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi which have resisted these aggressive measures could see accelerating case counts in the coming weeks. There's also the grim uncertainty of whether the coronavirus could come raging back when life normalizes especially without proper testing and tracing.
Other countries that have successfully resisted the first wave of coronavirus through aggressive measures like Singapore, South Korea, and Hong Kong are seeing flare-ups in new case counts. This might mean that social distancing may have to continue for many more months which would hinder a full economic recovery.
