Kalshi launched a midterm-election forecasting hub on Wednesday that combines live prediction-market odds with polling averages, campaign fundraising reports, historical results and political analysis.

Kalshi Builds Its Midterm Forecasting Dashboard

The New York-based company calls the platform a "one-stop-shop" for tracking Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Reuters reported that it uses VoteHub polling averages and Federal Election Commission fundraising data alongside prices generated by traders buying and selling political-event contracts.

"Prediction markets don't care about spin or partisanship," Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour said in a press release. "They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric."

"That kind of clarity is rare right now and that's what people are getting with the Midterms Hub," he added.

The launch expands Kalshi's growing political-data business after it introduced an index tracking shifts in Washington power.

Election Markets Face Growing Ethics Scrutiny

Kalshi entered federal election markets after prevailing in a 2024 court fight against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A federal judge ruled that elections did not constitute "gaming" under the relevant section of the Commodity Exchange Act, clearing the way for congressional-control contracts.

However, election trading faces growing scrutiny over insider information, manipulation and conflicts of interest. Kalshi fined and suspended three congressional candidates for five years after they wagered on their own races, according to the Associated Press.

The U.S. Senate has also barred senators and staff from participating in prediction markets as lawmakers debate tougher safeguards.

Wisconsin Warning Sparks Fresh Legal Clash

Wisconsin added another obstacle Tuesday, warning residents that wagering on an election and voting in it could disqualify their ballots and lead to a felony referral.

"If you bet on an election, it could cost you your vote," the Wisconsin Elections Commission said. State law bars anyone with a direct or indirect interest in an election wager from voting in that election.

Kalshi legal counsel Robert DeNault called the warning "unconstitutional and illegal" on X and urged the commission to withdraw it before courts intervened.