As one the the heavily coronavirus pandemic-impacted industries, commercial airlines have had to really squeeze their budgets in response to historically low travel demand. Even with aid from the Trump administration to help them stay afloat, every large airline has had to make some voluntary job cuts and employee buyouts in recent months to keep them from bankruptcy. Now, some are beginning to warn of coming involuntary layoffs due to the ongoing negative travel climate.

American Airlines (AAL  ) warned in a staff note on Tuesday that the company will be forced to cut 19,000 employees in October, when the federal aid protections for the jobs expire, due to the dramatic dent in current travel demand. While the airline has noted recently that some demand has recovered as travelers make last minute summer vacations, American stated that its fourth quarter capacity is expected to be only 50% of last year's level. International flights are also only expected to be about a quarter of 2019's demand due to travel restrictions and shifting consumer habits.

"We have come to you many times throughout the pandemic, often with sobering updates on a world none of us could have imagined," wrote CEO Doug Parker and President Robert Isom in a staff note announcing the job cuts, quoted by CNBC. "Today is the hardest message we have has to share so far--the announcement of involuntary staffing reductions effective Oct. 1."

The airlines executives expect to have 40,000 fewer employees in October than compared to pre-pandemic levels. American stated that the layoffs will include 17,500 union workers and 1,500 administration and management employees.

In addition to American, other airlines like Delta (DAL  ) and United (UAL  ) have hinted that there may be coming involuntary layoffs this fall, even though both companies have issued extensive early retirement and severance programs. Only Southwest (LUV  ) has stated that it does not expect any involuntary job cuts, but that is only because over a quarter of its workforce has agreed to extended leave or buyout programs.

For the airline industry, the only meaningful recovery in the short-term can come from another federal stimulus package, for the last one was only meant to work for a few months. Now the the coronavirus pandemic remains a medium-term, if not long-term, economic issue, there is no telling how long commercial airlines will be able to stay afloat.

Treatment Update

Earlier this week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, top U.S. infectious disease expert, warned of the possible dangers of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration granting an emergency use authorization on a potential coronavirus vaccine that has not been fully tested and vetted by regulatory measures. Fauci's comments came after the Financial Times reported over the weekend that the Trump administration is considering to use that type of authorization for AstraZeneca (AZN  ) and Oxford University's coronavirus vaccine candidate before the November presidential election.

While AstraZeneca's vaccine candidate could be ready for regulatory approval by the end of 2020, researchers behind the potential vaccine are not seeking to push for an emergency use authorization, according to Reuters. The candidate is currently being tested in large-scale clinical trials in several countries, with results expected to be released later this year.

In an interview with Reuters, Fauci did not directly address the Financial Times's report, but reiterated that, "the one thing that you would not want to see with a vaccine is getting an EUA before you have a signal of efficacy."

"One of the potential dangers if you prematurely let a vaccine out is that it would make it difficult, if not impossible, for the other vaccine to enroll people in their trial," Fauci stated.

Fauci stated that the only time such an approval may be necessary is if the vaccine had been proven to be safe and effective, but was waiting for the F.D.A. to review its marketing application.

"To me, it's absolutely paramount that you definitively show that a vaccine is safe and effective, both," Fauci added. "We would hope that nothing interferes with the full demonstration that a vaccine is safe and effective."