Walmart
More unsettling details were buried in the CEO comments.
The majority of Walmart's market share gains came from households earning over $100,000, while those below $50,000 are "managing spending paycheck to paycheck."
When America's discount retailer is being carried by its wealthiest shoppers, the broader consumer picture looks shakier than the headline numbers suggest.
The GDP Print
One day later, the Commerce Department confirmed the nerves were warranted.
Q4 2025 GDP came in at just 1.4% annualized, less than half the 2.9% Wall Street expected, and a cliff-drop from Q3's 4.4% surge.
Overall, the economy grew 2.2% in 2025, the slowest annual pace since the pandemic.
Federal government spending collapsed 16.6% in the quarter, taking over a percentage point off the headline number.
The 43-day government shutdown takes most of the blame, and most economists expect a bounce in Q1.
But with Q4 already at 1.4%, just one quarter of negative growth would put the U.S. on the doorstep of a technical recession.
What Traders Are Pricing
Polymarket's "U.S. recession by end of 2026?" market is currently priced at 23%, up slightly from yesterday.
Polymarket traders are still relatively optimistic about Q1 2026 growth, with the chance of 1.5% growth or less priced at just 18%.
Despite the soft print, don't expect the Fed to ride to the rescue. The March Polymarket gives a 94% chance of no change, meaning rate cuts remain firmly off the table for now.
Oxford Economics expects the shutdown drag to reverse in Q1.
If recession fears fade with it the massive capital expenditures required for AI infrastructure could face fewer macroeconomic headwinds.
That would reinforce the 'soft landing' narrative that's been quietly underpinning AI-adjacent names, and stocks like Palantir Technologies
