Senator Bernie Sanders was declared the winner of the New Hampshire Democratic Party as he narrowly beat out South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar. Sanders got 25.86% of the vote, Buttigieg finished second with 24.15%, and Klobuchar earned 19.85% of the vote. The result elevates Sanders and Buttigieg to the front of the pack while giving Klobuchar's campaign some momentum.
However, the biggest takeaway from the night was the collapse of former Vice-President Biden and Senator Elizabeth Warren who finished fourth and fifth with 9.26% and 8.69% of the vote, respectively. Biden was at one point a clear frontrunner, and now his candidacy needs a win in South Carolina. Similarly, Warren has underperformed after being one of the frontrunners, and her path to victory seems slim especially in Nevada and South Carolina.
State of the Race
Following the primary, Andrew Yang, former Massachusetts governor Deval Patrick, and Colorado Senator Michael Bennet all ended their candidacies. While Patrick and Bennet were long-shots polling under 1%, Yang has been polling in the low-single digits, and his support is likely to shift to Sanders.
One interesting way to look at the race is to see the number of votes won by the more liberal candidates vs the more moderate ones. By this metric, Sanders, Warren, Gabbard, and Yang won 41.2% of the total vote with the moderate candidates including Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar won 52.7% of the vote. This mirrors the Iowa caucus, where the moderates won 54.3%, and the more liberal candidates won 45.1%.
Flawed Frontrunners
Although Sanders is the clear frontrunner, this does raise concerns about his ceiling. Additionally, his campaign and presidency are based on creating a "political revolution," powered by an enthusiastic base that would turn out disengaged and nonvoters. Even his general election candidacy rests on this assumption as it's likely he would turn off some moderates and unify Republicans.
So far based on the first two primaries, this is not the case. Sanders is winning fewer votes than he did in 2016, and there are no signs of expanded turnout. In terms of pledged delegates, Sanders is the frontrunner, but his actual case for the nomination and presidency have been dented by these early results. This would not be the case if he was winning more votes than in 2016 with increased turnout.
The other frontrunner is Mayor Pete with his second-place finish in New Hampshire and a first-place finish in Iowa. However, his campaign has been unsuccessful in reaching out to minority voters who will play a major role in Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday states. He does very well among well-educated white people who were overrepresented in New Hampshire and Iowa.
Open Lane for Bloomberg?
The lack of a decisive frontrunner and the collapse of once-presumed frontrunner former Vice-President Joe Biden increases the chances of former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Bloomberg is a late entry, so he's not even on the ballot in many of the early states.
Yet, the dynamics of the race are supportive. There's an appetite for moderate candidates given that they are winning the vote share in the primary. However, there's no clear frontrunner in this lane especially given Biden and Warren's performance. Mayor Pete and Klobuchar have momentum but shown no ability to appeal to minority voters who will determine the next couple of primaries.
Bloomberg seems positioned to capitalize. He also has the resources to stay in the race for an extended period and focus on campaigning rather than fundraising.
