Shopify Inc (SHOP  ) is scheduled to report its first-quarter results on May 5. The company is likely to report its GMV (gross merchandize value) and gross profits ahead of the guidance, according to JPMorgan.

The Shopify Analyst: Analyst Bryan Smilek reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $150.

The Shopify Thesis: The company is likely to report GMV growth of 32% year-on-year and gross profit dollar growth of 29% year-on-year for the first quarter, Smilek said in the note.

Despite the recent rally in Shopify's stock, it is down by 19% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 4% during the same period, the analyst stated. He added that there are investor concerns around:

  • AI disruption risk
  • Mixed third-party data
  • GMV growth trajectory
  • Gross profit dollar growth
  • Free cash flow margins
Smilek mentioned that Shopify's GMV growth and gross profit dollar growth are likely to be supported by strength across:

  • SMB (small and medium business) cohorts
  • Upmarket and enterprise
  • Emerging channels, like POS (point of sale) and B2B (business to business)
  • Geographies
While there is concern around higher fuel prices weighing on consumer spending, "we believe macro trends remain healthy" and the company's exposure is minimal, with around 15% of GMV cross border trade, of which about 50% involves U.S. inbound or outbound, the analyst stated.

He added that third-party data suggest sequential acceleration in:

  • US CNP (card not present) transaction growth to 9% year-on-year, 8% in the previous quarter.
  • Website visits and unique visitor trends
  • MAUs (monthly active users), DAUs (daily active users), and downloads
Smilek also projected 2026 GMV growth of 27% and gross profit dollar growth of 26%.

Although GMV growth and gross profit dollar growth are likely to decelerate through 2026, this is because of currency impact and less favorable comps, he said.

SHOP Price Action: Shopify shares were down 0.61% at $134.32 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.