Apple Inc. (AAPL  ) is the odd one out in Big Tech's AI spending race. While the rest of the Magnificent 7 are collectively committing around $700 billion in capital expenditure (capex) over the next year, Apple cut its own spending 19% year-over-year last quarter to $2.37 billion.

The chart, published by A16Z, captures the gap visually.

Since 2014, Apple's quarterly capex line has barely moved. Every other Big Tech line has turned parabolic.

The Rest Of The Mag 7 Is Going All In

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN  ) is guiding to $200 billion in capex for 2026 alone.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT  ) has increased capex 89% year-over-year, while Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL  ) (GOOG  ) raised capital expenditures by 95% and Meta Platforms Inc. (META  ) by 48%.

Most of the increased spend is going toward AI data centers, chips, and infrastructure, and a good portion of that money flows directly to Nvidia (NVDA  ).

Apple's full-year spend was $12.72 billion. That is less than Amazon plans to spend in a single quarter.

The Market Is Starting To Question The Spending

Bigger is not necessarily better. When Amazon announced its $200 billion capex guidance, its stock dropped about 8% in the following session.

Alphabet's similarly aggressive plans sent its stock down roughly 6%.

Investors are getting nervous about whether these companies will ever see a return on the unprecedented investment.

CEO Tim Cook has defended Apples approach directly.

"From a CapEx point of view, we've always taken a very prudent and deliberate approach to our expenditure and we continue to leverage a hybrid model, which I think continues to serve us well," he forecasted on Apple's Q1 2025 earnings call.

Apple is relying on on-device processing and "private cloud compute" to avoid the massive server costs burdening its rivals.

What Polymarket Says

Prediction markets may offer the clearest read yet on who investors actually think wins this bet long-term, and they appear skeptical Apple's restraint pays off over the longer arc.

On Polymarket's "Largest Company End Of December 2026?" market, which has over $626,000 in volume, Nvidia leads at 44 cents, Alphabet sits at 33 cents, and Apple is at just 14 cents.

Despite persistent speculation about his successor, traders on Polymarket give Tim Cook a 69% chance of remaining CEO through 2027, suggesting a reversal in strategy is unlikely.

The crowd is pricing in that the companies spending most aggressively on AI infrastructure are the ones most likely to be running the world's highest valuation by year end.

Apple's "nah, we're good" approach to capex may be the right call for free cash flow.

Whether it's the right call for competitive positioning in AI remains to be seen.