Home Depot (HD  ) could have a major impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and housing sector when the retailer reports fourth-quarter results Tuesday before market open. Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the results and the key items to watch.

Home Depot Q4 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect Home Depot to report Q4 revenue of $38.18 billion. That's down from the previous Q4 revenue of $39.7 billion, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company beat analyst estimates for revenue in 7 of the last 10 quarters, including the most recent third quarter.

Analysts expect Home Depot to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.52, down from $3.13 in last year's fourth quarter.

The company has beaten analyst earnings-per-share estimates in 7 of the last 10 quarters, but has missed estimates in 3 straight quarters.

Expert Comments, Analyst Ratings on Home Depot

Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods said Home Depot comes into earnings at a "very interesting technical level."

"They are at the mid-point of their range for the last year as the stock is still lower by -3.1% over that span," Woods said in a weekly newsletter published Sunday.

Woods said Home Depot has followed an interesting pattern over the last seven reports, with the stock alternating between gains and losses.

"Last quarter shares fell -6% after reporting results. Can they swing back to the plus side when they report on Tuesday morning?"

For the stock's technicals, Woods highlights a 200-day moving average of $376.

"Any break and close above $390 should be the kickstart needed to get back to its recent $420 highs."

Woods said a break below the current levels could make the $355 to $360 are a "better entry point" for investors.

Here are recent analyst ratings on Home Depot and their price targets:

  • Piper Sandler: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $441 to $422
  • RBC Capital: Maintained Sector Perform rating, lowered price target from $366 to $363
  • Bernstein: Maintained Market Perform rating, raised price target from $362 to $381
  • Telsey: Maintained Outperform rating with price target of $410
  • Citigroup: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $407 to $450
Key Items to Watch in Home Depot's Q4 Results

The company recently expanded its partnership with Google Cloud, a unit of Alphabet Inc (GOOG  ) (GOOGL  ). The partnership includes the use of agentic AI tools to provide real-time guidance for homeowners and professionals who use Home Depot.

Home Depot previously said that it would extend the AI capabilities and investors could get more details on what this means and how the existing partnership is helping the company grow its customer base and revenue.

Another area to watch could be job cuts, with a Wall Street Journal report highlighting the company having 800 job cuts and placing return-to-office restrictions on corporate employees. Margins and guidance could include commentary on job cuts.

The company's third-quarter results were mixed, with revenue beating analyst estimates and earnings per share missing estimates. Home Depot said weather played into the results, with a lack of storms cited.

Investors and analysts will get an idea on how storms and weather impacted fourth-quarter results and if it was enough to turn things positive.

The company previously lowered its full-year earnings estimates, citing the housing market and cautious consumer spending. Home Depot shares got a slight boost last month on news of the White House working to improve the housing market.

Home Depot is one of the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and ETFs that track the index like the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA  ) will be in the spotlight on Tuesday.

Under the index's price-weighted rules, Home Depot stock is the fourth-largest holding at 4.74%. Home Depot is also one of the highest-yielding stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yet, shares declined in 2025. That makes it one of the "Dogs of the Dow" that could see strong interest in 2026.

Lowe's Companies (LOW  ) is the largest peer to Home Depot, and the stock could be volatile following its peer's results on Tuesday.

Lowe's beat earnings per share estimates in 15 straight quarters, while beating revenue in five of the last 10 quarters. Lowe's reports fourth-quarter financial results later this week on Wednesday.

Home Depot Stock Price Action

Home Depot shares are down 1.7% to $375.62 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $326.31 to $426.75. Home Depot stock is up 8.7% year-to-date in 2026 and down 1.7% over the last 52-weeks.

Lowe's stock is up 15.1% year-to-date in 2026 and shares are up 17.1% over the last 52 weeks.