Bernstein cut its price target on Coinbase
Why Coinbase Faces a Tougher Road Ahead
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a report cited by The Block that they cut their 2026 revenue forecast for Coinbase by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion.
Bernstein now expects a full-year loss of $2.60 per share versus their previous estimate of $5.97 in profit.
"We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates," the analysts wrote.
The firm expects Coinbase's spot trading to stagnate near $150 billion for the third quarter, with stablecoin revenue doing most of the heavy lifting for growth.
Bernstein did flag one bright spot: prediction markets and derivatives products could generate roughly $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up sharply from around $600 million earlier this year.
Why Robinhood's Prediction Markets Are Outgrowing Its Crypto Business
Bernstein expects Robinhood's
Moreover, the firm forecasts event contract volume jumping 21% quarter-over-quarter to around 16.4 billion contracts.
Crypto trading across Robinhood and its Bitstamp subsidiary is expected to recover to roughly $50 billion, still 38% below last year's Q3 volumes at the height of the 2025 bull run.
Robinhood's native blockchain, which launched in July, is already pulling its own weight, generating about $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees during the third quarter, driven mostly by memecoin trading.
Why Circle's Arc Token Is Offsetting Falling Reserve Income
Bernstein raised its price target on Circle
The firm expects Q3 revenue to rise slightly to $770 million, even as reserve income declines after USDC supply fell to around $73 billion from $77 billion in the second quarter.
Moreover, Arc gives Circle a new revenue stream beyond interest earned on USDC reserves, including transaction fees and validator staking revenue, according to the analysts.
Bernstein maintained Outperform ratings on all three stocks ahead of their third-quarter earnings reports.
