Coinbase Global (COIN  ) are Robinhood Markets (HOOD  ) are backing a rule banning prediction markets from offering slot machines, roulette and other casino games. A Calculated Concession

Casino games are "entertainment products, generally played against the casino itself" with no price discovery function, the Coalition for Prediction Markets members told the CFTC on Thursday.

Prediction markets "facilitate price discovery, providing useful information about the probability of future events."

The framing matters. Sports made up close to 90% of Kalshi's volume in the year ending in February, according to the Congressional Research Service.

U.S. legal sports betting hit a record $167 billion in 2025, up 11% year-over-year, according to the American Gaming Association. By ceding slot machines, the Coalition is asking the CFTC to formalize a distinction that protects access to that lucrative market.

Polymarket traders think there is only a 12% chance a law is passed this year that bans prediction markets from offering sports markets.

Volume on that market is light, at roughly $10,000. Coincidentally, Polymarket is not part of the lobbying group.

Rule 40.11 Is The Real Ask

The Coalition also asked the CFTC to apply a "principles-based regulatory framework" to Rule 40.11, the provision that bars contracts on terrorism, assassination, war, gaming or unlawful activity.

The current reading is "overly prescriptive" and goes beyond what the Commodity Exchange Act requires, the letter said.

Securing a narrower reading of the 'gaming' ban could ring-fence sports contracts from future crackdowns, clearing the runway for platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood to scale.

Bernstein recently projected prediction market industry volumes could hit $1 trillion by 2030, a forecast that depends on sports event contracts holding up.

Dina Titus Claims A Win

Rep. Dina Titus, a Nevada Democrat whose H.R. 7477 targets casino-style offerings on prediction markets, praised the move on X Thursday. "I am pleased to see the Coalition for Prediction Markets, which includes Kalshi, supports my rule," she posted.

Casino operators MGM Resorts International (MGM  ) and Penn Entertainment (PENN  ) remain aligned with the American Gaming Association, which is fighting prediction markets at the federal and state level.

A bipartisan coalition of 41 state attorneys general, co-led by Ohio's Dave Yost, filed a separate comment Thursday arguing sports event contracts are gambling and belong to the states.

Senate Democrats led by Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) filed their own letter the same day, pressing the CFTC to ban sports contracts outright.

The 12% Polymarket price suggests traders think those efforts may stall.