Investors anxiously await the bank earnings season kick-off, headlined by major players including JP Morgan Chase & Co.
Additionally, Blackrock Inc.
According to data from the Benzinga Pro platform, consensus among Wall Street analysts expected the following earnings per share (EPS) and estimated revenue for the listed financial companies set to report this Friday:
- Bank of America: Estimated EPS of $0.63 and estimated revenue of $23.743 billion.
- Bank of New York Mellon: Estimated EPS of $1.13 and estimated revenue of $4.294 billion.
- BlackRock: Estimated EPS of $8.79 and estimated revenue of $4.619 billion.
- Citigroup: Estimated EPS of $0.79 and estimated revenue of $18.755 billion.
- JPMorgan Chase: Estimated EPS of $3.36 and estimated revenue of $39.778 billion.
- Wells Fargo: Estimated EPS of $1.20 and estimated revenue of $20.319 billion.
In contrast, all other banks are experiencing a decline in EPS. Bank of America was the only one showing a decrease in both EPS and earnings compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.
Shares of major financial stocks, as tracked by the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
Insights On Bank Earnings
Wedbush analysts David J. Chiaverini, CFA; Brian Violino, CFA and David Giunta anticipated a stable fourth quarter for banks, with the prospect of easing net-interest margin (NIM) compression. However, they foresee ongoing negative credit migration due to the delayed impact of the Fed's rate increases.
The analysts acknowledged lower rates could be beneficial for banks. They might result in reduced deposit costs, increased loan demand and relief from credit stress caused by sharp rises in debt service costs.
Bank of America's equity research team, led by Ebrahim H. Poonawala, noted that historically, "bank stocks tend to sell-off on day one."
Given the recent rally in bank stocks, they anticipated a potentially significant reaction to any negative earnings surprises.
The team maintained a positive outlook on Wells Fargo, considering the negative investor sentiment on the near-term NII/EPS outlook as an opportunity to add exposure. They also held a positive bias on BNY Mellon, seeing it as an under-the-radar turnaround story with strong execution.
Looking ahead, if a hard landing scenario is averted, bank stocks have the potential to build on recent gains and address credit concerns, BofA believed. Bank stocks still trade at a relative discount compared to the S&P 500 when considering historical P/E ratios, analysts added.
In an earlier note published this month, Bank of America also listed several bank stocks expected to perform well in 2024. Regional bank players such as New York Community Bancorp, Inc.
