Apple Inc. (AAPL  ) holds its biggest event of the year Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET at the Steve Jobs Theater in Cupertino, and for the first time in 15 years, someone other than Tim Cook will run the show. The "Surprise and Shine" event marks the first iPhone launch under new CEO John Ternus, who took over Sept. 1 as Cook shifted into the executive chairman role.

Three new phones are expected, led by Apple's first foldable iPhone, likely priced from $2,099 and branded "Fold" or "Ultra." Pro-line models should see $150 to $200 price hikes tied to rising memory costs, according to Bank of America, and a revamped Siri AI, built partly on a customized Google Gemini model, rounds out the software story.

Twenty Years of Launch-Day Jitters

History suggests the stock will not celebrate right away. Across 24 iPhone launches since 2007, Apple shares have averaged a 0.3% decline on launch day itself, with a median drop of 0.6%.

The next session tends to look better: shares rose 15 of those 24 times, averaging a 0.5% gain, while the S&P 500 closed higher the day after 79.2% of the time and the Nasdaq 100 did so 75% of the time.

Wall Street Split: Buy Vs. Underweight

Wall Street remains split on where Apple's stock goes from here. Bank of America rates shares a Buy with a $380 target, implying 18.8% upside and valuing the stock at 37 times its 2027 earnings estimate, above the five-year median of 27 times.

KeyBanc holds an Underweight rating and a $250 target, flagging roughly 80 million iPhone 18 builds through early fiscal 2027 versus 91 million a year earlier, since no base iPhone 18 model ships this cycle.

The broader analyst consensus is a Buy, with an average target of $335 across 29 analysts, about 5.4% above current levels, according to Benzinga data.

Apple shares closed Tuesday at $316.22, down 1.17%, after touching a recent high last week before sliding 2.51% Friday. The stock is up 16.68% year to date and 34.93% over the past year heading into Ternus's first turn on the big stage.

AAPL Stock Price Activity: Apple shares were up 0.35% at $317.32 on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.