Adobe Inc (ADBE  ) stock has faced pressure from rising AI competition. The company could answer questions on the competition and what's ahead when it reports first-quarter financial results Thursday after market close. Here are the earnings estimates, what experts are saying ahead of the results and the key items to watch.

Adobe Q1 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect Adobe to report first-quarter revenue of $6.28 billion, up from $5.71 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in 12 straight quarters. The analyst estimate for the quarter would represent a new quarterly record, surpassing the $6.19 billion in the fourth quarter.

Analysts expect Adobe to report first-quarter earnings per share of $5.46, up from $5.08 a year earlier.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in 16 straight quarters.

What Experts Are Saying About Adobe

While several technology stocks have gotten hit due to fears of the "AI disruption trade," Adobe was one of the first, as noted by Freedom Capital Markets Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods.

"Investors heading into this week's earnings report are still wrestling with a simple question - is AI a disruptor or Adobe's next growth engine?" Woods said in a weekly newsletter.

Woods said Adobe stock has struggled to move higher amid an overhang of generative AI market-share concerns.

After missing out on acquiring Figma, Woods said Adobe investors are now focused on whether Firefly adoption, increased AI-driven recurring revenue, and double-digit sales growth can show that the company didn't miss the next wave of AI.

Woods said Adobe stock is technically still in a downtrend, which could mean investors should sell any rally.

"These stocks remain broken for now and rallies should be sold until the longer term trend is broken."

Here are recent analyst ratings on Adobe stock and their price targets:

• TD Cowen: Maintained Hold rating, lowered price target from $400 to $325
• Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $420 to $405
• RBC Capital: Reiterated Outperform rating, with price target of $430
• Citigroup: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $387 to $315
• Barclays: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $415 to $335

Adobe reported year-over-year growth across several segments in the fourth quarter, and investors and analysts will be looking for continued momentum in the first quarter results.

Among the highlights were total customer group subscription revenue up 12% year-over-year and business professionals & consumers subscription revenue up 15% year-over-year.

Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen said the fourth quarter results showed the company's "growing importance in the global AI ecosystem."

Narayen said the company is targeting double-digit ARR growth for fiscal 2026.

Commentary on potential mergers and acquisitions could also be a topic of discussion from analysts. Investor Michael Burry has suggested the company should buy Midjourney.

Another key topic will be how the company plans to fend off AI tools like Google Gemini's Nano Banana 2, which could disrupt Adobe's tools and platforms.

Commentary on AI disruption and guidance will likely be the key to deciding which direction Adobe's stock trades.

Adobe Stock Price Action

Adobe stock is down 1.7% to $270.52 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $244.28 to $443.90. Adobe share are down 18.9% year-to-date in 2026 and down 37.7% over the last year.