The Charles Schwab Corporation
Included are analyses and projections regarding U.S. and global stocks and economy, as well as the role of fixed income investments, particularly bonds. A common thread acknowledges the potential for a recession as well as the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the market.
With most families that average global wealth of over $1 billion having reported that they anticipate a 2020 recession, and adjusting their portfolios accordingly, the stakes are high in the months ahead, and the interrelationship between trade with China and a recession seems clear in light of recent analysis.
The U.S.-China trade war has been a key influence in the arena of U.S. and international markets since tariffs began in 2018, not only impacting business deals and economical outlook for the U.S. but also contributing to a weaker Chinese economy. And while not relevant to the trade war by itself, earlier this year the Federal Reserve did indicate a 31.5% probability for an upcoming recession, higher than even indicated in 2007. When it comes to a potential recession, according to Schwab, "an end to the U.S.-China trade war would help, potentially reversing business uncertainty and unleashing investment."
Some tension has been appearing to dissipate so far amid the U.S.-China "Phase One" trade deal, which may play a role ahead in fixed income investments for one, according to Schwab. "Ten-year Treasury bond yields should move higher in 2020 as recession fears ease ... Barring a setback on trade, 10-year Treasury yields could move back up to the 2.25% to 2.5% area, while the chances of a drop back below the 2019 low of 1.52% are diminishing as global recession fears abate."
Schwab, which releases market outlooks every year, currently holds around $3.9 trillion in assets, and that amount is set to increase to over $5 trillion once Schwab's acquisition of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
- https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/2020-us-market-outlook-ramble-on
- https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/outlook-overview
- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/11/3-major-investing-pitfalls-to-avoid-in-2020-according-to-schwab.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/a-majority-of-ultra-wealthy-expect-a-recession-and-are-hunkering-down.html
- https://www.pws.io//charles-schwab-to-buy-td-ameritrade-for-26-billion
