A default on Russian sovereign debt is much more likely after the Biden Administration cut off access to frozen funds on Monday. The administration is also planning on further isolating the Russian economy and sanctioning Russian leadership more deeply.

A catastrophic Russian default was initially avoided by the Biden Administration, permitting the Russian Government to make bond payments using U.S.-based cash reserves. However, the administration reversed course on Monday, with cash reserves being formally cut off. In addition, the White House announced on Wednesday that it would be ratcheting up pressure on the Russian economy.

"The United States and more than 30 allies and partners across the world have levied the most impactful, coordinated, and wide-ranging economic restrictions in history." The White House noted in a press release. "Experts predict Russia's GDP will contract up to 15 percent this year, wiping out the last fifteen years of economic gains. Inflation is already spiking above 15 percent and forecast to accelerate higher...Russia will very likely lose its status as a major economy, and it will continue a long descent into economic, financial, and technological isolation."

The shift in stance towards Russia's frozen funds comes as counterattacks have liberated parts of Ukraine, and troops uncover evidence of horrific wartime atrocities against civilians. In Bucha and other towns across Ukraine, civilians were summarily executed by Russian soldiers and buried in mass graves. President Joe Biden's rhetoric towards Russia has notably stiffened significantly as evidence piles up, with the U.S. President referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin as a "war criminal" and calling for him to be tried for war crimes.

Russia's latest debt payments are due the day of writing, Wednesday. With the country now cut off from U.S. Dollars and facing creditors unlikely to accept payments in volatile rubles, a Russian sovereign default seems highly likely. The government has a 30 day grace period to acquire foreign money somehow to pay its debts if it misses its payment, but doing so is made difficult by restrictions inflicted by sanctions.