Data infrastructure chip company Marvell Technology's (MRVL  ) stock has plunged 31% year-to-date, despite gaining 22% in the last three months, as it grapples with intense competition, macroeconomic uncertainty fueled by U.S. semiconductor sanctions, and tariff policies.

On May 6, the company announced postponing its Investor Day from June 10 to a future date in 2026, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Marvell Technology specializes in designing semiconductor solutions that power modern data infrastructure. It focuses on high-performance chips for cloud computing, networking, storage, 5G, and automotive applications.

Now, let's examine how the broader market indices performed.

PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), of which Marvell is also a constituent, generated 11% returns year-to-date and 29% in the last three months. The S&P 500 Index generated over 5% year-to-date and 10% in the last three months, while the NASDAQ Composite Index generated 5% and 16% returns during the same periods.

Marvell's Latest Quarterly Results

On May 29, Marvell reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share, which beat the Street estimate of 61 cents. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.9 billion, up 63% year-over-year, which beat the consensus estimate of $1.88 billion.

The gain was backed by rapid scaling of its custom silicon programs and robust shipments of its electro-optics products.

Marvell expects second-quarter net revenue of $1.90 billion-$2.10 billion (versus analyst consensus of $1.98 billion) and adjusted EPS of 62 cents-72 cents (versus analyst consensus of 66 cents). However, Wall Street firms, including Needham, Wells Fargo, and Keybanc, cut their price forecasts on the stock.

Analyst Optimism

Recalling an event in February, Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya expressed conviction in both GPU vendors, such as Nvidia Corp (NVDA  ), and ASIC vendors, including Broadcom Inc NVDA and Marvell, on the rising tide of AI compute and networking demand. He noted that ASICs are winning over a 10%-15% share of the overall accelerator market, despite GPUs commanding over an 80% share.

On May 8, JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur dismissed concerns about market share loss, citing Marvell's ongoing AI chip projects with Microsoft Corp (MSFT  ) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN  ), which remain on track with no reported share loss. He reiterated his estimate of $4 billion in AI revenue for Marvell in 2025, driven by growth in custom AI chips (ASICs) and networking."

Marvell hosted a Custom AI Investor Event, streamed live on June 17, 2025, highlighting advances in Marvell's technology platform. Wall Street firms, including Needham and JP Morgan, rerated Marvell after the event.

The analysts noted that Marvell raised its 2028 Data Center Total Addressable Market estimate to $94 billion, up from $75 billion. All subsegments drove the growth. The company expects its 'Custom XPU attach' segment to grow at a 90% CAGR through 2028, outpacing broader segment growth, the analysts added.

Marvell has a consensus price forecast of $100.45 based on the ratings of 31 analysts. The high is $150, issued by Barclays on Jan. 17, and the low is $67, issued by Redburn Atlantic on May 28. With an average price forecast of $88.67, Marvell has an implied 16.36% upside from the most recent analyst ratings.

Price Action: MRVL stock was trading higher by 3.2% to $78.73 at last check Wednesday.