A federal judge threw out Elon Musk's antitrust lawsuit against the World Federation of Advertisers, Nestle, Shell (SHEL  ), Mars, CVS Health (CVS  ) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL  ) on Thursday, ruling that X Corp failed to prove it was harmed by an alleged advertising boycott.

U.S. District Judge Jane Boyle didn't just throw the case out, she ruled X can never refile it, saying the alleged conspiracy didn't qualify as an antitrust violation in the first place.

The Backstory

X filed the suit in August 2024, claiming the advertisers used a WFA initiative called the Global Alliance for Responsible Media to collectively pull billions in ad revenue from the platform after Musk's 2022 Twitter takeover.

GARM folded within days of the filing, unable to fund a legal defense. That looked like a win for Musk at the time. It no longer does.

The defendants said they left X on their own because of brand safety concerns after Musk gutted the platform's content moderation team and told departing advertisers to "go f**k yourself" at a New York Times event.

The Legal Pile-Up

The dismissal drops in what may be the worst legal stretch of Musk's career.

A San Francisco jury found Musk liable last week for misleading Twitter investors during his 2022 buyout, a verdict that could cost him upward of $2.6 billion.

That was the first real crack in the "Teflon Elon" moniker he earned after winning the 2023 "funding secured" trial.

His $134 billion suit against OpenAI and Microsoft Corp (MSFT  ) goes to trial April 27. Polymarket traders give Musk a 34% chance of winning. It was above 50% in January.

Separately, Musk's lawyers demanded this week that Delaware Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick recuse herself from two Tesla Inc (TSLA  ) shareholder lawsuits, accusing her of bias after her LinkedIn account appeared to endorse a post celebrating his California loss.

What's Next For Elon

TSLA is trading around $386, down roughly 12% year-to-date. Q1 earnings land April 21.

But the bigger Musk event may be the SpaceX IPO, which is reportedly targeting a June listing at a valuation that could reach $1.75 trillion.

Polymarket traders give it a 78% chance of completing by June 30.

Whether Musk's courtroom losses dent investor appetite for the biggest IPO in history is the trillion-dollar question.

And for those tracking the wilder corners of prediction markets, Polymarket gives a 4% that chance Musk buys OnlyFans.