Elon Musk pitched Macrohard, the AI agent project by xAI, as an AI-only software company that could replicate Microsoft Corp
Seven months later, the project appears to be dead.
What Happened At xAI
A Business Insider report published Wednesday revealed that Macrohard has stalled following leadership departures, a hiring freeze and the suspension of a data project that employed 600 contractors.
More than 20 engineers previously assigned to Macrohard have reportedly left the company or moved to other teams.
In February, Musk announced that Toby Pohlen would oversee the project. He left 16 days later.
The problems extend well beyond one project. Six of xAI's 12 original co-founders have now left. Former staffers have described xAI as stuck in a "catch-up" phase against OpenAI and Anthropic.
Musk last October called Macrohard "profoundly impactful at an immense scale." Now the project has no leader, no job postings and no visible momentum.
Why It Matters For TSLA
Tesla Inc
The company is reportedly building "Digital Optimus," an AI agent that operates computers autonomously by processing a continuous data stream, not static screenshots like Macrohard.
The approach mirrors Tesla's Full Self-Driving system, and some of Macrohard's computing resources have reportedly shifted to Tesla's Autopilot team.
Tesla disclosed a $2 billion investment in xAI in its Q4 earnings as part of Master Plan Part IV. That money is now effectively a stake in the combined SpaceX-xAI entity after the February merger.
The question is whether Digital Optimus follows the same trajectory. Tesla has already lost its robotaxi backend director and Cybercab program manager in recent weeks.
What Do Prediction Markets Think
Traders give Grok 5 a 65% chance of shipping by June 30, but just 4% odds it arrives by end of March.
On the best AI model by end of June contract, xAI sits at 8%, far behind Anthropic at 40% and Google at 37%. Half the founding team is gone, Macrohard is stalled, and bettors don't see Grok closing the gap anytime soon.
Polymarket gives 71% odds that Musk becomes the first trillionaire before 2027. But the product milestones tell a different story.
Traders give just 33% odds on a Cybercab selling for under $30k this year and only 18% on Optimus reaching consumers by year-end.
Musk's net worth may keep climbing on the IPO wave, but the product roadmap across xAI and Tesla keeps slipping. Macrohard is the latest entry on that list.
