The recent stock market weakness, mishandling of the coronavirus situation, and former Vice President Joe Biden securing the nomination have begun to upend the looming political landscape. President Donald Trump has gone from a nearly 60% favorite to win reelection in late-February to now a 48% favorite. Republican odds to keep control of the Senate has decreased from 73% in late-February to 56%, while Democratic odds to keep control of the House has increased to 75% from 57%.

Biden's Ascent

Another factor during this period has been Biden's looming triumph over Senator Bernie Sanders in the nomination. As a socialist, Sanders was going to hurt down-ballot races especially in places like Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. His candidacy rested on the assumption that the moderate vote would be split allowing him to win with a plurality and that his campaign would be successful in activating and engaging the youth and nonvoters.

Both turned out to be incorrect. Biden's competition in the moderate lane quickly dropped out following the South Carolina primary, and there hasn't been a surge in turnout figures for Sanders' base. Although, he is dominating with young voters, while Biden dominates with older voters.

Swing Vote

However, there is a surge in moderate, suburban voters especially in Romney-Clinton districts that voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 but flipped to voting for Hillary Clinton in 2016. This swing powered the 2018 wave in the midterms with moderate Democrats winning these swing areas in overwhelming numbers.

If it persists, many red states could turn blue in the coming decades like North Carolina and Arizona. In contrast, areas that have been typically blue composed of working-class white people form the core of Obama-Trump districts which could turn many blue states into red states like Minnesota or Wisconsin.

The powerful, moderate swing vote is a big threat to President Trump's reelection. It's not a good sign that he was losing this base even when the economy was doing well. His case rested on the strong stock market and a good economy. However, his handling of the coronavirus situation and the effects on financial markets and the economy may undercut these arguments.