Costco Wholesale
Costco has beaten EPS estimates in nine of its last 10 quarters, which may explain the confidence.
The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words management will say on the 5 p.m. ET call.
What Kalshi Predicts Costco Will Say
Membership sits at 98% and Renewal at 96%, which is no surprise.
Costco essentially breaks even on product and makes its money on fees, and it has been tightening enforcement to protect them, including limiting food court access to members after years of letting anyone grab the $1.50 hot dog.
"Tariff" is up at 96%. Vachris opened the last call calling the impact "extremely fluid," so traders expect a repeat as new global duties run their course.
"Labor" sits at 54%. Costco's latest wage step took entry pay to $20 an hour this year, with top clerks near $32, so any discussion of margins or operating costs runs straight through payroll.
What Kalshi Predicts Costco Will Skip
"Cannibalization" sits at just 28%, and that gap is the interesting part. Digital comps grew 18.8% in April alone, and Vachris has said he expects the app to keep outpacing the warehouse.
Management discusses the dynamic constantly but in euphemism, framing Costco as its own toughest competitor. Traders are betting they dodge the blunt word again.
"Dividend" sits at 34%, down sharply on the day.
The board already raised the quarterly payout 13% to $1.47 in April, so the move is old news, and management said last quarter it had no plans for a special dividend despite cash rebuilding.
"Hot Dog" is a coin flip at 50%. The $1.50 combo has held its price since 1985 and works as a loss leader, immortalized by co-founder Jim Sinegal's reported warning to a successor not to raise it.
Reading The Board
Sam's Club, the warehouse arm of Walmart
Costco's core comps ran 7.8% in April, nearly double that, a sign it is winning shoppers from the competition rather than just riding a rising category, which could somewhat justify its premium price tag.
At over 50 times forward earnings, even a clean beat could trigger a sell-the-news move, so the guide may matter more than the print for a stock already up 17% this year.
