Brent crude oil prices are likely to stay above $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for another month, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing a Goldman Sachs note.

Analyst Daan Struyven stated that the "situation is fluid," echoing Vice President JD Vance's comments of a "fragile" truce following the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran announced on Tuesday.

"We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside," said Struyen.

According to Goldman Sachs, the limited traffic at Hormuz would lead to a loss of upstream production in the Middle East. As a result, Brent crude oil price could average at $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.

However, if the situation improves over the weekend, the analysts foresee oil price at $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the final quarter of 2026.

Hormuz Crisis Intensifies

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the biggest casualty of the war. The waterway that accounts for 20% of global oil flows is witnessing limited traffic even after the ceasefire, as Tehran continues strict monitoring.

Maritime Intelligence Firm, Windward, said on Wednesday that all vessel transits still require coordination with Iranian armed forces. "The strait has not reopened - it is in a supervised pause," it said.

Iran also threatened to keep Hormuz shut after Israel conducted large attacks on Lebanon, allegedly violating the ceasefire.

Due to the Hormuz crisis, Brent crude oil price climbed 10.05% over the past month, even touching $109 per barrel earlier this month. At 6:15 am ET, it was trading 0.62% higher at $96.51 per barrel.

Tolls Escalate Tensions

To add to the woes, Iran is also planning to charge tolls from the vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil industry leaders are reportedly lobbying the Trump Administration to reject any proposal by Iran to levy tolls and assume permanent control of the waterway. The oil executives stated that the proposed tolls could add about $2.5 million per shipment through higher insurance and fees, costs likely to be passed on to consumers.

President Donald Trump also berated Iran on Thursday for charging tolls.

Meanwhile, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that the ceasefire would do "little or nothing" to combat surging energy prices as long as the Strait of Hormuz remained a bone of contention.

High-level U.S. and Iranian officials are set to meet on Saturday morning local time in Islamabad, Pakistan, to negotiate a lasting peace deal.