BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones remains constructive on Meta Platforms Inc.
Muse downloads have trended higher since its Sept. 8 launch, peaking on day 12 before stabilizing through day 23.
The app has generated more than 5.6 million downloads, with early U.S. downloads surpassing Sora and ChatGPT. Jones said Meta's large installed base across Instagram, WhatsApp and Facebook gives the company a natural distribution advantage.
However, Muse's mobile app open rate spiked shortly after launch before settling below Alphabet Inc.
Jones said the pattern shows solid initial interest, but Muse still needs to build habitual user engagement.
Monetization Opportunity Remains Early
Meta currently charges partners small transaction fees, while Muse offers a free basic tier and monthly subscriptions for users seeking higher usage.
Jones believes Meta is prioritizing adoption and engagement for now.
He sees advertising as a potential longer-term monetization opportunity if engagement increases, but said investors still lack clarity on how large the revenue opportunity could become.
BNP Paribas also expects Meta to continue using its Family of Apps to drive additional Muse downloads.
Competition And Engagement Remain Key Risks
Jones does not yet view Muse as a near-term threat to vertical marketplaces because the service lacks the direct inventory, transaction capabilities and customer-service infrastructure those platforms provide.
He said investors should watch competition from OpenAI's Dots and future consumer AI agents from Alphabet and Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Jones also highlighted future partnerships and daily active-user trends as key indicators. If downloads remain steady but daily usage stalls, Meta may need to adjust the product to improve market fit.
BNP Paribas maintains a positive view on Meta with a $885 price forecast, representing about 22% upside from the Oct. 1 price of $725.90.
META Price Action: Meta Platforms shares were up 0.78% at $731.62 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
