On February 13th, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia passed away in Texas in the middle of the United States' highest court's term. The Supreme Court, comprised of nine justices who serve for life, is the most powerful body in the U.S. justice system-having the final say on decisions appealed through the federal and state court systems. The Court's decisions hold precedent for future lower court decisions across the country, but this ability to set precedent is complicated by Scalia's death.With eight justices currently serving (equally split by Republican and Democrat nominated justices) it seems likely there could be 4-4 ties on controversial cases. In this case, lower court decisions stand but the Supreme Court's decisions hold no precedent for future cases. Because of this, President Obama is eager to nominate another justice before his term ends in January 2017.Republican Congressmen have openly opposed an Obama nomination, insisting he wait until after the 2016 elections, but the Obama administration insists that he will utilize his Constitutional power and nominate a replacement in the coming weeks. After Obama nominates a potential justice, that individual must go through Senate confirmation hearings and pass a confirmation vote before assuming the position. With a Republican-controlled Senate, the chances of Obama getting a Supreme Court nominee to the bench seems unlikely, but doesn't mean he won't try.
One popular contender seems to be D.C. Circuit Judge Sri Srinivasan. He was nominated for federal judgeship by Obama in June 2012 and confirmed in May 2013 by a unanimous 97-0 vote. The ease with which he was confirmed in 2013 may give him a leg up in potential Supreme Court nomination hearings, allowing Obama to get a liberal nominee onto the Court. But Srinivasan is not entirely liberal, as he worked for conservative justice Sandra Day O'Connor and views himself as a moderate. If confirmed, he would be the first Asian-American Justice.
Another contender is Loretta Lynch, Obama's current attorney general. Despite complicated confirmation hearings for her current position, Obama could politicize Lynch's nomination as the first potential female African-American Supreme Court Justice. If Republican senators hold up her nomination, Democratic presidential candidates could use this fact to convince swing voters in crucial states in the 2016 election. Because this is an election year, Obama's nomination as well as Republicans' responses could be driven by re-election efforts in hopes of swaying voters.
Regardless of who Obama nominates, it is clear that there will be another liberal nominee. Just how liberal the nominee identifies is unclear, but they would bolster a strong liberal bloc on the court if confirmed. Scalia voted in favor of many large corporations' rights and was expected to vote to suppress consumers' ability to bring class-action lawsuits against companies in a case that is currently pending. While large companies would benefit from this decision, the likelihood of any similar decision is unlikely with the 4-4 split.
In terms of future decisions, the Court continues to hear cases regarding corporate environmental regulation as well as collective bargaining rights. With an added liberal justice, it seems clear that corporations will be hard-pressed to win cases to deter costly regulatory schemes and increasingly powerful union influence. Additionally, immigration law and intellectual property rights are two more important spheres to consider when thinking about the Supreme Court's reach, so closely examining a nominee's track record will be crucial for large businesses in the weeks following Obama's nomination.
Whether Obama's nominee is confirmed in the Senate or not, the nomination itself can significantly affect the American economy in the long-run, especially its influence on the 2016 presidential election. Even if his nominee is rejected, Democrats might gain clout by deeming Republicans as obstructionist and unable to function in a bipartisan manner-thus ushering in a liberal president next year. But if Republicans cooperate, Obama can create a powerful liberal bloc on the Supreme Court for years to come.
