It's feeling a lot like 1929, according to economist and founder/president of the A. Gary Shilling & Company, Gary Shilling. In an interview with CNBC, Shilling predicted a similar stock market crash to the crash of 1929, pointing out similarities in the lead-up to the infamous crash that rung in the Great Depression and today.
During his interview on CNBC, Shilling predicted a market downturn that could reach as high as a 40% drop as a direct result of the coronavirus pandemic-related recession. Shilling compared the ongoing financial situation to the 1930s; in both scenarios, equities surged after an earlier market crash. In the 30's it was a result of the "Panic of 1907", where stocks tumbled amid manipulation by the Knickerbocker Trust Company. In today's scenario, it is, of course, the coronavirus pandemic, which drove the Stock Market to weeks-long drops of major indices.
The surge in the '30s eventually died, leading to the beginning of the stock market crash on Black Thursday. Shilling is worried that such a plunge may lay ahead for modern Wall Street.
"I think we've got a second leg down and that's very much reminiscent of what happened in the 1930s where people appreciate the depth of this recession and the disruption and how long it's going to take to recover," says Shilling.
Many economists have predicted a "V-shaped" economic recovery, in which the economy begins a rapid recovery immediately after bottoming out. Economists who support the V-shape recovery prediction often point to the massive amount of stimulus aid paid out to American citizens, corporations, and small businesses. Shilling, however, thinks that an immediate recovery in the latter half of 2020 is too optimistic.
"Bear markets that accompany recessions last about 11 months, far longer than the recent slump. According to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) analysts, the U.S. stock market has never reached its bottom in less than six months after falling more than 30% in the face of a recession," Shilling stated in an earlier opinion piece published by Bloomberg.
Shilling asserts that the stimulus measures aren't enough to offset the economic disruption caused by the pandemic. Shilling's assertions resonate more within the context of the concerns over the recipients of Paycheck Protection Program loans, the ongoing surge in new coronavirus infections, and CARES Act unemployment bonuses, the looming expiration of which with no further federal support will leave many Americans with drastically reduced spending power.