January 3, 2026, U.S. forces launched Operation Absolute Resolve and captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a operation that lasted 2 hours and 30 minutes.
Cuba lost its primary oil supplier overnight.
On January 29th, 2026, President Trump signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency, citing Cuba's alliances with Russia, China, Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
By February, the U.S. had imposed the first effective oil blockade of Cuba since the 1962 Missile Crisis.
Then on May 1st, signed Executive Order 14404 extending the sanctions to every individual involved in Cuban:
- Energy
- Defence
- Financial Services
The first ever Cuba sanctions ever issued pursuant to IEEPA. Meaning they target individual foreign persons and companies anywhere in the world. Not just Americans or Cubans.
This is a quasi-declaration of war, referring to Cuba as an "extraordinary threat", while financially squeezing their economy & mining sector.
Cuba's Fortune
Cuba holds approximately 500,000 metric tons of cobalt reserves, the largest amount in the western hemisphere, 7x more than the US has.
While everyone fixates on the politics, they ignore the Western Hemisphere's richest, most strategic deposits of the exact metals powering the EV revolution.
They hold about 5.5 million tons of nickel, the second largest cobalt reserves in the western hemisphere behind Brazil.
These resources are concentrated together in one small Moa region.
Yet since the embargo, Cuban production has cratered. Nickel & cobalt down and the blockade accelerating infrastructure collapse... But the reserves remain, ready for extraction
Compared to the DRC's China-controlled supply, Cuba's deposits are geographically perfect for North America and potentially far cleaner for Western capital once the politics shift.
We can talk ideology, but this is the real endgame.
The Companies That Could Start Extracting
The companies that supply Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), GM (NYSE: GM), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Stellantis (NYSE: STLA), Ford (NYSE: F), etc.:
- Glencore (NYSE: GLEN): The world's largest cobalt producer
- Vale (NYSE: VALE): A top-tier nickel powerhouse
- BHP (NYSE: BHP) and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO): Both diversified nickel, copper, and cobalt operations on a global scale
- Anglo American (OTC: NGLOY): Globally diversified miner with significant nickel and cobalt operations already embedded in the EV supply chain
A Canadian company that halted ventures since the second-wave of sanctions, which target every international company.
They could technically re-open as soon as conditions improve and see a massive surge.
The Venezuela Playbook & Private Sector Wedge
This follows Venezuela's script almost perfectly:
- Cut the oil
- Impose the blockade
- Declare the emergency
- Carve out private-sector exceptions
- Negotiate with successors.
Risks
Power Grid Constraints
Cuba's electrical grid is in a crisis with no clear short-term solution. The country is generating roughly 1,278 MW against a peak demand of ~3,000 MW.
Their deficit of over 1,700 MW isn't only due to the embargos. Between 2010 - 2024 the government invested 32% of their budget into tourism, and only 12% into energy.
Their electrical grid is made up of components from different countries, companies, eras, repairing the system is extremely difficult. Repairing the system alone is estimated to cost $8-10 billion.
Emigration
Cuba's population has dropped over 12% since 2021, from 11.1 million to 9.7 million.
Largely skilled workers and younger professionals.
American companies would either have to bring in their own higher-wage employees, or employ a workforce that is actively leaving the country.
Title III of the Helms-Burton Act
In the event of a regime change, it doesn't take away from the fact that nearly every significant asset on the island has a disputed ownership history going back to the revolution.
Unless it's a priority, this may take years to resolve before investments start pouring in.
Title III gives U.S. nationals a private right of action against any entity "trafficking" in property confiscated by Cuba since 1959. With extraterritorial reach covering both U.S. and international companies.
A Miami jury awarded $30 million against Expedia in April 2025, after Mario Echevarria, a Cuban-American, sued Expedia Group claiming the hotels were on an island his family owned prior to the revolution.
It was overturned a few months later, but it was still a lengthy 6-year legal battle which set the precedent:
Any business touching Cuban risks costly & reputationally damaging lawsuits, regardless of the outcome.
Regulatory Gray-Areas
If there's a regime change, this leaves no existing legal or regulatory framework.
Foreign investment, permitting, and contracts have no legal basis and must be re-written.
That infrastructure would need to be built from scratch, with no guarantee from future administrations.
Bottom Line
Cuba's resources are still strategically valuable.
Trump is repeatedly stating "Cuba is Next", after Iran.
Whether the Cuban regime placates, or there's a full military invasion, these untapped battery metal assets in America's backyard will eventually be extracted.
The companies already feeding the EV giants are positioned to win big if Cuba's acquiesces, or there's regime change.
If Trump's agenda unfolds as stated, the question isn't if, but when Cuba's mining picks up, and how that timeframe looks like.