Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) could be entering a stronger multiyear upgrade cycle as new hardware, artificial intelligence features and a foldable iPhone give consumers more reasons to replace aging devices, according to two technology analysts. Munster Sees Revenue Shifting Into 2027
Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster told CNBC Apple's decision to split its iPhone upgrade cycle could pressure near-term growth. However, it may push more revenue into the March and June quarters.
Munster said Wall Street expects roughly 14% to 15% growth for the March quarter. He believes growth could approach 20% as the delayed launches contribute to sales.
He is also watching Apple's Siri rollout and pricing strategy. Munster said past price increases across Apple products have caused little change in customer retention. That suggests the company still has room to raise prices without significantly hurting demand.
Ives Sees AI, Foldable iPhone Driving Next Cycle
Yorkville Ives founding partner, Dan Ives, said Apple's next growth phase will depend heavily on hardware innovation and its AI strategy.
Ives estimates about 300 million iPhones have not been upgraded in more than four years. He expects Apple to gradually add AI capabilities as it moves toward the iPhone's 20th anniversary.
He also sees significant potential for Apple's foldable iPhone. Ives said the device could eventually represent 15% to 20% of sales among Pro and Pro Max users.
He also pointed to Apple's massive installed base of about 1.5 billion iPhones and 2.5 billion iOS devices as a key advantage.
Still, pricing remains a balancing act. Ives expects limited customer churn from an increase of roughly $100, but said Apple does not have unlimited pricing power as higher memory costs pressure margins.
AAPL Price Action: Apple shares were down 0.12% at $326.19 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.