Americans could face higher grocery prices later this year as drought, rising input costs and crop disease weigh on what is shaping up to be the weakest U.S. wheat harvest in decades.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's May Crop Production report, total U.S. wheat production is projected at 1.56 billion bushels in 2026, down 21% from a year earlier and the lowest level since 1972.
The decline follows a difficult growing season marked by drought conditions, sharp temperature swings, elevated fertilizer and diesel costs and multiple wheat-related diseases.
Wheat Production Hits Multi-Decade Low
According to a report by The Hill, Todd Hubbs, a crop marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University Extension, said Hard Red Winter wheat production is forecast at 515 million bushels, which would be the lowest since 1957.
Soft red winter and white wheat varieties are also expected to post some of their weakest production levels in years, underscoring the broader strain facing U.S. wheat growers.
While wheat prices have already reacted to tightening supplies, experts do not expect an immediate shock at grocery stores. Instead, higher costs are likely to move gradually through the food supply chain.
Food Inflation Risks Build
The most direct impact would likely be felt in products such as flour, bread, pasta, cereals and baked goods. Higher grain prices can also affect livestock producers because wheat is used in some animal feed, potentially increasing costs for beef, pork, poultry, eggs and dairy products.
Food inflation concerns have been building for months as agricultural input costs continue rising. Earlier this month, economist Justin Wolfers warned that fertilizer supply disruptions could eventually translate into higher food prices, writing that "the big story right now is oil," but "the next story is food."
Analysts have also pointed to elevated fertilizer, fuel and freight costs as growing challenges for farmers. The World Bank has warned that fertilizer prices could rise further this year, raising the risk of additional pressure on crop production and food affordability.
Although wheat alone is unlikely to trigger a major spike in grocery bills, the weaker harvest adds to broader concerns that food prices could remain under pressure later this year as farmers and food producers navigate rising costs across the supply chain.