Wall Street expects Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) to grow its revenue at a pace that would leave even Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) in the dust - and Elon Musk says analysts still aren't thinking big enough.
Ticker Take founder Jon Erlichman shared a chart comparing analysts' five-year revenue growth estimates for some of the world's largest companies. SpaceX topped the list with projected revenue growth of 2,090%. It stood far ahead of Nvidia's 288%, Alphabet Inc's (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) 140%, Microsoft Corp's (NASDAQ: MSFT) 136%, Amazon.com Inc's (NASDAQ: AMZN) 81% and Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) 54%.
That means Wall Street already expects SpaceX's revenue to grow at more than seven times Nvidia's pace over the next five years. It's a remarkable comparison considering Nvidia has become the defining winner of the artificial intelligence boom; while SpaceX is still widely viewed as a rocket company despite its rapidly expanding businesses.
Are Analysts Still Too Conservative on SpaceX?
Responding to the chart on X, Musk wrote, "I think both SpaceX and Tesla will exceed these estimates."
While the comment covered both companies, SpaceX's projection stands out. Analysts are already modeling an extraordinary 2,090% revenue increase over the next five years-compared with 119% for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and 288% for Nvidia.
In other words, Musk isn't just saying SpaceX will outperform expectations; he's arguing that even one of Wall Street's most optimistic growth forecasts still doesn't go far enough.
Analyst optimism stems from Starlink's subscriber growth and the company's push into AI infrastructure - businesses that drive future revenue alongside rocket launch operations.
Reuters has also reported that SpaceX expects to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026.
The next question is whether SpaceX can deliver.
If Starlink continues to scale and AI becomes a meaningful revenue contributor, today's seemingly extraordinary forecasts may eventually look conservative. That possibility-not just the comparison with Nvidia-is what makes Musk's brief response worth paying attention to.
Musk's Track Record of Overpromising Looms Over SpaceX
It's a familiar story: Musk once predicted Twitter would generate more than $26 billion in revenue and nearly quintuple its customer base by 2028, but the company fell far short, with ad revenue plunging.
The failed projections have raised concerns about Musk's similarly ambitious promises for SpaceX.
Those concerns have intensified after SpaceX's first public-company earnings showed a $541 million quarterly net loss and $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter, alongside massive capital spending.