Prior to the midterm elections, it was rumored that former President Donald Trump was going to announce his candidacy for 2024. At the time, the consensus was for a massive 'red wave' which would give Republicans control of both branches of Congress and control of state legislatures and governorships across the country.
By announcing soon after the elections, it would allow President Trump to take credit for the victory and position himself as the standard bearer for the Party. Of course, reality intervened as independent voters surprisingly broke for Democrats.
The overall result is that Democrats performed much better than expected and were able to retain control of the Senate. Republicans are likely to win control of the House of Representatives but in a much more narrow manner than initially believed.
More importantly, it was a rebuke of President Trump and his anointed candidates, especially in Western states where voters' concerns about democracy were more than other issues like crime or inflation.
For most politicians, such a stunning and surprising outcome would lead to a change in strategy or a period of contemplation. Instead, President Trump is taking an even more aggressive posture as he has been on the attack against other rumored 2024 candidates like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.
Both have been the subject of favorable profiles. DeSantis has gained a national profile and a following among conservatives due to his rejection of federal guidance during the coronavirus and relaxation of lockdowns at a much earlier time. In fact, many believe DeSantis would have an edge in a primary with Trump because he was quicker in rejecting the orthodoxy surrounding the coronavirus.
However, it's also clear that DeSantis' hand has strengthened following the midterms, while Trump's has weakened. Nearly every candidate parroting his statements about the election underperformed more moderate Republicans on the ticket, and it's fair to conclude that more mainstream Republican candidates would have meant a majority in both branches of Congress.
Trump's strategy is to replicate what happened in 2016 when he came out aggressively and surprised his rivals by taking an early and commanding lead. However, a key difference is that Trump never faced a unified party until the final stages of the Primary as his opponents were more focused on battling each other. It's unlikely the Party would make the same mistake and likely unify behind one candidate.