As November approaches, the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate and Presidency continue to rise. Polls are showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding lead nationally and in nearly every swing state. According to PredictIt, Biden's odds of winning the election have gone from 45% two months ago to 62% today.
Given the polarized nature of the electorate, such a large lead is surprising. However, it seems that President Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus has led to a decisive swing towards Biden among senior citizens, who make up the most engaged group of voters. In 2016, Trump won this group by 9 points. Now, he's losing this group to Biden by a couple of points. His support among women has slipped as well. And, he hasn't meaningfully increased his support among any group either. Given recent economic trends and the virus' spread, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which support shifts back to him.
Senate Control Up for Grabs
PredictIt odds also show another swing in the Senate. Democrats have gone from 40% odds to take the Senate to over 60%. There are a number of seats held by Republicans up for election. In a wave election, any close race is likely to go blue. In a way, it's similar to 2008 when Democrats won ballots up and down due to the 2008 recession and financial crisis. During previous wave elections of 2008 or 2010, the winning party actually outperformed the polling as well.
One Effect
If Democrats have control over the executive and legislative branches, they are going to be able to pass all sorts of legislation that liberals have supported over the past decade. One example is gun control in the form of universal background checks and bans on assault rifles.
This has been a very popular cause among the Left, and it's gained in support among the population. According to Gallup polling in 2010, 45% of the U.S. population supported gun control. Today, 64% of the population supports some form of gun control. This shift is due to the younger population being more liberal and favoring more aggressive measures on guns and the number of high-profile incidents of gun violence. Another piece of evidence supporting the shift among the population is companies like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Dick's Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) choosing to no longer sell guns or ammunition.
Increased Gun Sales
As the election nears, the prospect of increased gun control will become more real, and people will begin to stockpile guns. The same thing happened in 2008 and 2012 following former President Barack Obama's victories even though increased gun control wasn't possible then. In 2008, a number of Senate Democrats were "blue dogs" who were socially conservative and supported the Second Amendment, so measures would never pass. And in 2012, Republicans had control of both branches of Congress, so nothing meaningful would pass.
Gun sales have been very strong this year already due to the combination of social and political unrest in addition to economic struggles. Stocks like Smith & Wesson (NYSE: SWBI) and Sturm, Ruger & Co. (NYSE: RGR) have been big winners, but the prospect of gun control in 2021 could result in these stocks extending their rallies.