Grand Theft Auto VI launches in just 10 days, but shares of Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO) are down 16% this year. The company reports earnings after the bell Monday, ahead of the game's Nov. 19 release.
Analysts expect a loss of 86 cents per share, according to Benzinga Pro. Take-Two forecasts quarterly net bookings, a measure of game sales and in-game spending, of $1.62 billion to $1.67 billion.
That's down from $1.96 billion a year earlier, when Borderlands 4 and Mafia: The Old Country launched. GTA VI sales won't appear until the following quarter.
What Kalshi Predicts Take-Two Will Say
"Pre Order" trades at 86%. CEO Strauss Zelnick described GTA VI preorders as "unprecedented and astonishing" in August, but cautioned that demand might simply pull forward future sales.
Wells Fargo expects no numerical preorder disclosure before launch, so a "Pre Order" mention may come without a number attached.
Sensor Tower estimates 7.71 million digital preorders worth $751 million through Nov. 3, averaging roughly $97 per copy. Those unofficial preorder estimates suggest strong demand for premium editions.
"Zynga" trades at 93%. Take-Two expects the mobile gaming label to produce 34% of fiscal 2027 bookings, just behind Rockstar's 37%, even as management anticipates weaker mobile sales.
"Red Dead" is at 86%. Red Dead Redemption 2 has sold more than 87 million copies, demonstrating how Rockstar's biggest franchises can generate sales years after launch.
"Borderlands" sits at 78%, while "Mafia" trades at 68%. Both franchises released major titles in the year-ago quarter, contributing to a difficult comparison for Monday's results.
"GTA+" is at 78%. Rockstar is offering a free month of the subscription service with digital GTA VI preorders, potentially converting buyers into recurring customers.
What Kalshi Predicts Take-Two Will Skip
"Vice City" sits at just 10%, despite being GTA VI's setting. Executives are more likely to discuss bookings and release timing, leaving details of the game's fictional world to Rockstar's marketing.
"Wembanyama" is at 8% chance. The San Antonio Spurs star is the cover athlete for NBA 2K27, developed by Take-Two-owned Visual Concepts, and headlines the game's first season of in-game content.
Reading the Board
Take-Two expects full-year bookings of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, up about 20% from last year. But the forecast disappointed Wall Street in August, when analysts were expecting around $8.6 billion.
Wells Fargo sees considerably more potential for GTA VI, forecasting 50 million copies sold at an average price of $90. By comparison, the bank estimates Take-Two's forecast assumes just 33 million copies at $80 each.
The stakes are high. As of Friday, options traders were pricing in a 9.1% move in Take-Two shares following earnings, equivalent to roughly $3.7 billion in market value.
With the stock down 16% this year, investors will be looking for signs that GTA VI can exceed expectations.
Kalshi and Benzinga have an existing data collaboration agreement.