Elon Musk's SpaceX pulled off a rough but successful test flight of its upgraded Starship V3 on Friday, days after filing publicly for what may become the largest ever IPO.
The SpaceX prospectus told investors its growth strategy is "highly dependent on Starship," the fully reusable rocket built to carry the heavier payloads behind its Starlink and AI expansion.
The flight was the debut of the souped-up V3 design. All 33 Raptor engines lit at liftoff, and the vehicle reached space and deployed 20 Starlink mass simulators despite losing one of its six upper-stage engines, which the remaining engines gimbaled to compensate for.
A Successful Flight Despite Losing An Engine
Two of the payloads were functional Starlink satellites that engineers nicknamed "dodger dogs," fitted with flashlights to film Starship's heat shield in the dark as the vehicle pulled away, a key reusability test.
The Super Heavy booster fared worse.
It suffered early engine shutdowns, failed to complete its boostback burn, and made a hard splashdown in the Gulf.
Why Starlink Is Funding The Bet
SpaceX is reportedly chasing as much as $75 billion at a valuation near $2 trillion, a price that asks investors to look past the fact that the company is now losing money.
The losses trace back to xAI, which ran a roughly $6.4 billion operating loss last year.
Starlink, the only reliably profitable piece of the combined enterprise, made $4.4 billion in operating profit.
Starship is how SpaceX plans to fly cheaply and often enough to fill orbit with satellites and, eventually, the orbital data centers it calls the only commercially viable path to AI compute at scale.
Where Prediction Markets Land
Polymarket prices a June listing at 95%, with a Nasdaq debut targeted around June 12 under the ticker SPCX.
On valuation, the $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion bucket commands a 67% implied probability.
On Kalshi, traders think there is a 21% chance SpaceX launches a crewed Starship mission to Mars before 2030.
The S-1 confirmed a dual-class setup giving Musk's Class B shares 10 votes each, locking in his control of the combined aerospace, telecom, and AI giant. That clause drew pension fund blowback over the offering's terms.