Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) could add roughly $80 billion in value from its Semi business, Morgan Stanley says, as U.S. diesel prices hit a record $6.06 per gallon. Analyst Andrew Percoco says the bigger prize may eventually come from autonomy, with Tesla potentially charging fleets as much as $18,000 a month per truck for self-driving software.
Morgan Stanley Sees $17 Billion Software Business
Percoco put diesel front and center in his Friday note: "$6 Diesel...Enter Tesla Semi."
Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla could have 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040, generating roughly $17 billion in software revenue and $7.5 billion in earnings before interest and taxes.
Tesla could charge $12,000 to $18,000 per month for autonomous software on each truck, or about $0.85 to $1 per mile.
That opportunity adds $20 per share to Morgan Stanley's Tesla bull case, equivalent to roughly $80 billion in market value. Percoco raised his bull-case target to $840, while keeping an Equal-Weight rating and $400 base-case target.
Tesla is trading at $366 at time of writing.
$6 Diesel Changes the Math
Morgan Stanley estimates autonomous trucks could cut fleet costs by roughly 20%, largely through lower labor, fuel and insurance expenses.
AAA puts the national diesel average at a record $6.06 per gallon, up about 63% from $3.71 a year ago.
Morgan Stanley estimates an autonomous electric truck could eventually generate around $202,000 in annual profit for an operator, compared with nearly $37,000 for a human-driven diesel truck.
The bank's model, however, assumes each autonomous truck travels 18,000 miles a month, more than double typical industry utilization.
Traders Still Doubt the Ramp
Tesla has yet to operate autonomous Semis. Elon Musk said in July that Tesla expects to get self-driving working on the truck around the end of 2026 or early 2027.
Production is also only starting to ramp. Kalshi traders give Tesla a 37% chance of producing more than 1,000 Semis in any quarter this year and just a 16% chance of topping 5,000.
Swedish electric freight company Einride has ordered 500 Tesla Semis, but expects only around 75 to enter service this year. That gives investors a near-term test of how quickly Tesla can turn Morgan Stanley's long-range forecasts into actual production.