Technology giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) could report a 15th straight double beat with fiscal first-quarter financials coming Wednesday after hours.
Here's a look at the earnings estimates, what experts are saying and key items to watch.Microsoft Q1 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect Microsoft to report first-quarter revenue of $90.68 billion, up from $77.67 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst revenue estimates in more than 10 straight quarters.
Analysts expect Microsoft to report first-quarter earnings per share of $4.72, up from $4.13 last year.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in more than 10 straight quarters.
Overall, the company has posted 14 straight double beats through the fourth quarter and is going for its 15th straight double beat on Wednesday.
What Experts Are Saying
With concerns about neocloud financing and capex by big technology companies, Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives sees pressure on the Magnificent Seven stocks like Microsoft ahead of earnings.
"This week will be an important one to gauge the demand trends/GPU building/enterprise capex-driven plans for the Big Tech stalwarts with all the markets watching," Ives said.
Ives estimates that 800 to 1,000 more data centers will be built in the U.S. over the next few years. The analyst sees hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet as winners from this Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Ives highlights $850 billion of hyperscaler AI spend this year against a cloud backlog of more than $2 trillion, meaning capacity and not demand is the constraint.
"Microsoft is the cleanest expression of that setup. Azure moves the stock, but the read that matters is whether capacity is absorbed as fast as it lands, since backlog compounding ahead of revenue is the demand underwriting the capex."
Ives maintained an Outperform rating on Microsoft stock with a price target of $615.
Freedom Capital Chief Market Strategist Jay Woods highlights Microsoft's technicals in a weekly newsletter.
"The technical boundaries are quite clear, but quite wide. The $545-$555 area has become a stubborn ceiling, rejecting shares on three separate occasions, while the $340-$350 zone has repeatedly provided a floor," Woods said.
Woods said the stock has failed to break below its moving averages on several occasions.
"Three strikes, and the bulls are back on defense."
The market expert said a failure to break out could see the stock land closer to $460 or fall to the $350 support level.
"Microsoft remains in a longer-term trading range, and until buyers can convincingly clear that ceiling, history suggests chasing rallies near resistance may be a tough trade."
Here are several other recent analyst ratings on Microsoft and their price targets:
- Oppenheimer: Maintained Outperform rating, raised price target from $570 to $625
- Truist: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $575 to $600
- Scotiabank: Maintained Sector Outperform rating, raised price target from $615 to $625
- Guggenheim: Maintained Buy rating, with price target of $586
AI and cloud revenue will be key in Microsoft's results and management commentary.
The company reported Intelligent Cloud revenue up 32% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, outpacing overall company growth of 18%. Overall cloud revenue was up 27% year-over-year for the company.
Microsoft's Azure revenue was up 43% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, with the key business surpassing $100 billion in revenue for the fiscal year for the first time.
Investors and analysts will want to see the AI- and cloud-related revenue continue to increase given heavy spending in both areas.
Layoffs could be another key topic of interest with the company pitching employees on voluntary buyouts earlier this week.
As one of the largest companies in the world and a key component of the top U.S. stock market indexes, Microsoft's earnings and stock reaction could create market volatility. Here's a look at the company's weighting in three ETFs that track the top indexes.
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA): third-largest holding, 5.97% of assets
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY): third-largest holding, 5.93% of assets
- Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): third-largest holding, 6.20% of assets
Microsoft Stock Price Action
Microsoft stock is down 0.3% to $530.95 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $349.20 to $553.72. Microsoft stock is up 12.3% year-to-date in 2026.