The Democratic party has had a rough week so far. A massive meltdown in the Iowa Caucuses' new app and reporting process has left everyone unsure of the results. So far it looks like Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are each winning in a different metric.
The Iowa Democratic Party has said there definitely wasn't any kind of security breach or interference, but the uncertainty surrounding the entire election led to a wave of conspiracy theories and doubts.
The Iowa caucuses are notoriously confusing as it is. At nearly 1,700 caucusing locations across the state, voters show up in person to stand in their candidates corner, literally. So far, so good, but if the person's chosen candidate doesn't reach the "viability" threshold (15%), they have to pick a new candidate, a second choice, or convince enough people to join their group to reach viability.
This process results in two different numbers: vote count, and state delegate equivalents (SDE). This is the first year that the vote count from the first round is being reported; normally the Party just announces the SDE which are awarded based on how many votes each candidate gets in the second round and are distributed proportionally.
While the complexity of the process has contributed to the uncertainty surrounding the results, the real problem with the caucuses was caused by the new technology. The Iowa Democratic Party purchased a smartphone app for precincts to report caucus results, but it didn't work as planned. A hotline established in case of such an emergency also failed resulting in caucus chairs being stuck on hold for hours.
Many tech experts have been warning for weeks that introducing a new technology at such a critical time is a bad idea. Douglas Jones, a computer scientist at the University of Iowa, told NPR, "Caucus chairs in many cases apparently were attempting to download and install the app on their phones on caucus night. That's extraordinarily difficult, to do that kind of thing under pressure," says Jones. "Downloading an app at the last minute is crazy."
Caucus chairs and volunteers were untrained and unprepared to use the new technology, and the app itself didn't work. One of the benefits of the new app was supposed to be faster reporting times, according to the Iowa Democratic Party, but it's now unclear when the vote will be fully verified and reported. The chaos surrounding the vote has caused some to question its authenticity and accuracy, but there is no evidence to support this suspicion.
As of Wednesday afternoon, the Iowa Democratic Party has only released 71% of the vote, so the results may still change. Currently, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg are leading the pack with Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobachar taking third, fourth, and fifth respectively.
Sanders and Buttigieg are each winning in a different metric. Buttigieg is winning the SDE with 26.9% of the vote. Sanders is close behind with 25.2%. However, Sanders is winning based on the total count from the first round, the vote for everyone's first choice. He holds 24.32% or 32,638 votes, and Buttigieg is at 21.48% or 28,825 votes.
"Unreported" has more votes than either Buttigieg or Sanders with 29% of results yet to be announced.
Sanders and Buttigieg are the winners, but Biden is definitely the loser. His campaign had low expectations to start with: they wanted to place third at least, but other commentators say he needed to pull a close second to stay competitive in the race.
New Hampshire is the next stop in the primary, and Sanders is expected to win easily there. Biden's only hope is to win big in South Carolina where he's expected to fare better because of his consistently high poll numbers with black voters. If Biden does falter, Mike Bloomberg is expected to try to take the center lane.
Normally, the winner in Iowa gets a boost in the polls, but due to the delay and the meltdown, some expect it won't have much of an impact.