At the start of 2026, the best-performing screens on Wall Street read like a semiconductor roll call - SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ: SNDK), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU), Western Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: WDC) - all swept higher by the race to secure storage capacity for an AI infrastructure boom that showed no signs of slowing.
Two months later, the same urgency is back. But the commodity everyone is scrambling to secure has nothing to do with chips.
The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil story.
As military escalation between the U.S., Israel and Iran stretches into its second week, a structural shock is moving through fertilizer and chemical markets - and five stocks are repricing faster than crude oil itself.
One Strait, One Third Of Global Fertilizer Trade
According to a recent analysis from the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), around one third of global seaborne fertilizer trade - approximately 16 million tonnes - passes through the Strait annually.
That figure sits alongside the more widely cited quarter-share of global seaborne oil trade transiting the same waters.
The Gulf states sitting behind that chokepoint are not incidental fertilizer producers. Qatar, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE together account for nearly 49% of global urea exports and approximately 30% of global ammonia exports.
When shipping flows stall, that supply does not simply reroute - it disappears from the market with a lag that farmers cannot absorb during the mid-planting season.
The urea spot price has already moved. According to TradingEconomics, benchmark urea is trading at $591.75 per metric ton - up more than 30% since the conflict began.
Urea is the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, carrying roughly 46% nitrogen content, the highest of any solid fertilizer.
Wall Street's Hottest Trade Just Rotated From Chips To Fertilizer
Thursday's five best-performing stocks in the Russell 1000 had no chipmakers. Every name on the list made fertilizer or chemicals.
- Celanese Corporation (NYSE: CE) led the day by rallying 14.9%.
- CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) soared 13.6%, capping a 25% gain across two sessions - the largest 2-day rally in the company's publicly traded history.
- LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (NYSE: LYB) rose 9%
- Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) rose 8.3%.
- The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) surged 6.9%.
CF Industries Holdings
Nitrogen fertilizers - ammonia, urea - are the invisible inputs behind roughly half the world's food supply. CF Industries is the largest producer of both in North America, and it manufactures them from more competitive domestic natural gas.
When Hormuz disrupts Gulf suppliers, CF's input costs stay flat while its selling prices rise. Barclays raised its price target to $120 this week; Wells Fargo moved to $113 at Overweight.
The Mosaic Company
Where nitrogen feeds a crop's growth, phosphate develops its roots. Mosaic is North America's largest phosphate fertilizer producer, supplying the nutrients that drive yields across corn, soybean, and wheat fields.
The Gulf connection runs through ammonia - a key input Mosaic sources from the same supply chains now under pressure. Tighter ammonia supply raises Mosaic's costs, but it simultaneously gives the company cover to push phosphate prices higher. That spread has historically moved in Mosaic's favor.
Dow Inc.
Dow makes the chemicals and plastics embedded in packaging, construction materials, automotive components, and consumer goods. For years, its most price-competitive rivals were Gulf producers operating on subsidized energy.
The Hormuz disruption creates a competitive rebalancing across global petrochemicals.
Those Middle Eastern producers now face a logistics problem. Dow, running on cheaper U.S. natural gas liquids, does not. The disruption narrows the cost gap that Gulf competitors have historically held.
LyondellBasell Industries
LyondellBasell converts U.S. ethane - among the cheapest petrochemical feedstocks in the world - into polypropylene and polyethylene, the plastics inside bottles, food containers, pipes, and automotive parts.
Middle Eastern producers have long undercut U.S. peers on price in these markets. As Gulf export volumes fall, LyondellBasell's plants absorb market share at margins that were unavailable three weeks ago.
Celanese Corporation
Celanese operates further from the fertilizer story than the other four, but the mechanism is the same. The company produces specialty chemicals - acetyls, methanol derivatives - used in paints, adhesives, pharmaceuticals, and industrial coatings.
Gulf producers supply a significant share of global methanol, one of Celanese's primary inputs. Supply constraints there reduce competition and tighten pricing across Celanese's product lines.
A 30% Urea Spike Can Move Food Prices For Months
Fertilizer prices do not stay confined to the commodity desk. The World Bank estimates that every 1% rise in fertilizer prices can push global food prices up by approximately 0.45%.
A 30% urea spike, sustained, embeds itself into the cost structure of every major grain - wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, sugarcane - and then into consumer prices three to six months later.
"With spring planting beginning around the U.S., it is critical to secure transit, along with the necessary risk-coverage insurance, for vessels carrying fertilizers through the Strait of Hormuz," said Faith Parum, Ph.D., economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation.
"If farmers are unable to obtain the remaining supplies in time, we could see reductions or shifts in planted acreage and lower yields, which affects our nation's food security and the affordability of essential goods," she added.
The United States does not rely heavily on direct imports of Middle Eastern fertilizers - but that is exactly why domestic producers win when Gulf supply contracts.
When countries that depend heavily on Persian Gulf supply - India, Brazil, and much of Southeast Asia - are forced to seek alternatives, demand shifts toward other global suppliers. Competition for available product tightens. Prices rise for everyone, including U.S. buyers.