Goldman Sachs warned that damage to Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure could push global gas prices 50-100% higher, sparking a potential energy crisis ahead of winter.
Qatar LNG Attack Disrupts Global Supply
The concern centers on QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest LNG production site, which was knocked offline by attacks. Qatar supplies roughly one-fifth of the global LNG market.
"There is a risk that this just drags so much that it makes the process very painful," said Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, on the bank's "Exchanges" podcast.
Dart emphasized the severity of the damage, "It doesn't take three years to fix anything. What they are really saying is these two liquefaction trains were so damaged that we need to start over. We need to rebuild them from scratch."
Natural gas prices have already climbed 50% to 70%, and Dart expects further upward pressure if supply isn't restored.
Temporary relief has come from China redirecting surplus gas to global markets, but that window is short-lived.
Meanwhile, the U.S., the world's largest LNG exporter, has limited spare capacity to fill the gap quickly.
Qatar LNG Facilities Hit Amid Middle East Escalation
Last month, President Donald Trump said he would not send U.S. troops to the Middle East and had ordered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop striking Iranian energy infrastructure.
The comments followed Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran's retaliatory missile attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities, Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries, and UAE gas infrastructure.
Trump warned Iran against further attacks on Qatar's LNG sites, clarifying that Israel's strike was limited and that Qatar had no involvement.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the U.S. had struck over 7,000 Iranian targets and sunk more than 120 ships.
Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL) said all staff at its Ras Laffan Industrial City facilities were safe following the March 18 attack.
A fire at the Pearl gas-to-liquids facility was rapidly extinguished, LNG production remained shut down, and the company coordinated with QatarEnergy and local authorities to assess broader damage.