ExxonMobil Holdings (NYSE:XOM) said higher refining margins are expected to boost third-quarter Energy Products earnings by $4.5 billion compared with the second quarter.
In its third-quarter 2026 earnings update, the company also projected a $1.3 billion earnings headwind from lower liquids prices in its Upstream segment, partly offset by a $300 million benefit from gas price changes.
In other segments, Specialty Products earnings are expected to benefit by $500 million, while Chemical Products earnings are projected to face a $600 million impact from refining margin changes.
Other factors include a $200 million benefit from lower scheduled maintenance and a $300 million benefit from additional days in the quarter.
ExxonMobil also expects $2.5 billion in negative timing effects from third-quarter adjusting items. These items include a $700 million benefit from divestments and a $200 million reduction from other items.
XOM Earnings Preview: October 2026 Estimates and Analyst Targets
The company is expected to report earnings on Oct. 30.
Analysts estimate EPS of $3.83, up from $1.88 a year earlier, and revenue of $102.02 billion, compared with $85.29 billion last year.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 22.5x and carries a consensus Buy rating, with an average price target of $173.17.
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $173.17. Recent analyst moves include:
- Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Raises target to $185 on Oct. 15)
- Wells Fargo: Downgraded to Equal-Weight (Target $182 on Oct. 1)
- TD Cowen: Buy (Raises target to $180 on Sept. 28)