SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) faces its second post-IPO lockup expiration Thursday, with roughly 319 million shares becoming eligible for trading - the calendar-based tranche tied to the company's 70th day as a public stock. The release follows an initial wave of roughly 912 million shares that freed up two weeks ago, when the public float jumped from under 5% to above 12% of shares outstanding.
Shares traded at $135.91 in early trading on Thursday, down 2.68% from Wednesday's close of $143.34, keeping the rocket-and-satellite giant's market cap near $1.83 trillion, per Benzinga Pro.
The move follows a stretch of relative strength. SpaceX shares climbed 4.17% to $145.84 on Monday after fresh 13F filings revealed several institutions building multibillion-dollar stakes, pushing the stock back above its $135 IPO price.
Momentum has been choppy, though. Shares changed hands near $110.63 on Aug. 6, not far from a 52-week low of $104.83, even as the first unlock landed.
Wall Street's consensus rating on the stock remains a Buy, with an average analyst price forecast of $228 - well above current levels. Technical signals painted a more cautious picture heading into the first unlock when shares traded below key moving averages and RSI sat near 37.64.
A prior Benzinga analysis argued the unlock overhang may be overstated. Most newly eligible shares are held by executives, employees, and early investors - holders less likely to dump stock after a roughly 40% drop from the post-IPO high near $225.
Lockup expirations grant the ability to sell, not an obligation. Still, a limited public float can amplify swings in either direction, and the market already knows more supply is coming.
More tranches follow close behind. Roughly 319 million additional shares are due Sept. 9, with further releases pegged to Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24, before the full 180-day lockup expires Dec. 8.
Elon Musk's stake, the largest single block, stays locked until June 2027.